{ "name": "Track Record Ledger", "publisher": "Regards of Wallstreet", "url": "https://www.regardsofwallstreet.com/data/track-record", "methodology": "https://www.regardsofwallstreet.com/data/track-record/methodology", "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/", "cite_as": "Track Record Ledger, Regards of Wallstreet, https://www.regardsofwallstreet.com/data/track-record", "definitions": { "call_result": "Whether the call as published won, on whole-position scoring, with passes scored as the trade the reader did not make.", "thesis_correct": "Whether the predicted phenomenon happened, separate from whether the structure made money. The two diverge when an instrument expresses a thesis imperfectly.", "return_on_risk_pct": "P&L per unit of risk for priced calls only. basis \"stated\" means a real premium was logged; \"modeled\" means intrinsic value delivered against the implied-move cost of a straddle. Passes carry null: no position, no P&L.", "expectancy_pct": "Win rate x average win - loss rate x average loss, over priced calls, in return-on-risk percent per call.", "conviction": "Recorded 1-10 at logging time from 2026-08-14 onward. Null on older calls; never backfilled." }, "note": "A paper record of calls published on the site. Nothing in it is an executed trade.", "last_updated": "2026-08-14", "generated_at": "2026-08-14T15:08:04.826Z", "stats": { "overall": { "total": 63, "scored": 37, "wins": 22, "losses": 15, "hitRatePct": 59.45945945945946, "thesisScored": 37, "thesisCorrect": 22, "thesisAccuracyPct": 59.45945945945946, "open": 12, "pending": 6, "unscorable": 8, "priced": { "count": 2, "winners": 2, "losers": 0, "winRatePct": 100, "avgWinPct": 60.00000000000001, "avgLossPct": null, "medianPct": 60.00000000000001, "expectancyPct": 60.00000000000001 } }, "byCategory": { "stock-direction": { "total": 14, "scored": 1, "wins": 1, "losses": 0, "hitRatePct": 100, "thesisScored": 1, "thesisCorrect": 1, "thesisAccuracyPct": 100, "open": 6, "pending": 6, "unscorable": 1, "priced": { "count": 0, "winners": 0, "losers": 0, "winRatePct": null, "avgWinPct": null, "avgLossPct": null, "medianPct": null, "expectancyPct": null } }, "options-direction": { "total": 11, "scored": 6, "wins": 4, "losses": 2, "hitRatePct": 66.66666666666666, "thesisScored": 6, "thesisCorrect": 4, "thesisAccuracyPct": 66.66666666666666, "open": 3, "pending": 0, "unscorable": 2, "priced": { "count": 0, "winners": 0, "losers": 0, "winRatePct": null, "avgWinPct": null, "avgLossPct": null, "medianPct": null, "expectancyPct": null } }, "volatility": { "total": 38, "scored": 30, "wins": 17, "losses": 13, "hitRatePct": 56.666666666666664, "thesisScored": 30, "thesisCorrect": 17, "thesisAccuracyPct": 56.666666666666664, "open": 3, "pending": 0, "unscorable": 5, "priced": { "count": 2, "winners": 2, "losers": 0, "winRatePct": 100, "avgWinPct": 60.00000000000001, "avgLossPct": null, "medianPct": 60.00000000000001, "expectancyPct": 60.00000000000001 } } } }, "conviction_calibration": [], "weeks": [ { "week_of": "2026-08-10", "scorecard_article": null, "notes": "First week logged under the conviction and benchmark rules added 2026-08-14, so every row carries a 1-10 conviction stated before the outcome and, where it could be sourced in session, the SPY level at entry. Rows are opened as the articles publish and graded in a later scorecard. The week event is Reddit joining the S&P 500 before the open on Tuesday August 18, with the rebalance trade printing in Monday August 17 closing auction.", "calls": [ { "id": "kxiay-any-position-pass-2026-08-14", "ticker": "KXIAY", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "any new position in the KXIAY ADR (no listed US options chain found)", "thesis": "The SanDisk Investor Day read-through is already priced into the Aug 14 Tokyo close, so chasing KXIAY from here underperforms simply not adding.", "conviction": 3, "catalyst": "SanDisk Aug 13 Investor Day guidance, read-through to Asian memory names, Aug 14 Tokyo session", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-14", "article": "why-is-kioxia-stock-up-today-japan-memory-giant-explained", "entry": { "spot": 53740, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Spot is the Aug 14 285A.T (Tokyo) close in yen, per Investing.com. No listed US options chain was found for the OTC ADR KXIAY." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": null, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "ntes-long-straddle-pass-2026-08-14", "ticker": "NTES", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long straddle into the print", "thesis": "NetEase's reaction move stays under 3%, so buying the straddle into the August 20 print does not pay.", "conviction": 6, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 results, Aug 20 before the US open", "invalidation": "A hard Ananta launch date on the earnings call, which could produce a gap the last two reaction sessions do not predict.", "logged": "2026-08-14", "article": "netease-ntes-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-20", "entry": { "spot": 122.65, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-13", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "No live NTES chain was reachable, so no implied move is logged. The pass is graded against a 3% realised-move threshold drawn from the last two reaction sessions, -0.2% after the Q1 2026 beat and -2.12% premarket after the Q4 2025 miss." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 777.88, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "rddt-long-call-pass-2026-08-14", "ticker": "RDDT", "category": "options-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long call into the index auction, $180C Aug 21 weekly at $7.65 ask", "thesis": "RDDT does not close above $187.65 by the August 21 expiry, so the at-the-money weekly call bought into the index add expires below its breakeven.", "conviction": 7, "catalyst": "S&P 500 inclusion effective before the open Aug 18; index rebalance prints in the Aug 17 closing auction", "invalidation": "A close above $187.65 on or before 2026-08-21 makes the call profitable and this pass a loss.", "logged": "2026-08-14", "article": "why-is-reddit-rddt-stock-up-sp-500-inclusion", "entry": { "spot": 178.37, "session": "intraday", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": 7, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Aug 21 ATM straddle mid-market ran 6.69% of spot at the $180 strike and 7.18% at $177.50; quoted at ~7%. Chain struck against a 10:33am ET quote." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 777, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": null, "notes": "The crowded trade: Aug 21 calls traded 19,540 contracts against 6,438 puts, better than three to one, with nearly 5,900 through the $180 strike.", "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "rddt-shares-long-pass-2026-08-14", "ticker": "RDDT", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long the shares on the index-inclusion pop", "thesis": "The S&P 500 seat does not repair the Google referral funnel, so buying the shares 13% higher on index news underperforms; RDDT trades below $178.69 by mid-September.", "conviction": 8, "catalyst": "S&P 500 inclusion effective Aug 18", "invalidation": "A landmark AI-licensing deal priced well above the existing ones, or US daily active users growing again while management still calls search referral traffic choppy.", "logged": "2026-08-14", "article": "why-is-reddit-rddt-stock-up-sp-500-inclusion", "entry": { "spot": 178.69, "session": "intraday", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "10:35am ET quote, +13.01% against Thursday's $158.12 close." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 777, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": null, "notes": "Carries forward the August 10 decision piece's no, at a price 14% higher and on unchanged fundamentals.", "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "rddt-call-skew-short-pass-2026-08-14", "ticker": "RDDT", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "short the call skew, Aug 21 $185/$190 bear call spread for ~$1.50 credit against $3.50 max loss", "thesis": "The August 21 call skew is rich but not safe to sell: a 13.37% short float with a calendared forced buyer can run through the $185 short strike, so the credit does not compensate for the tail.", "conviction": 5, "catalyst": "S&P 500 inclusion effective Aug 18", "invalidation": "A close below $185 at the August 21 expiry would have paid the spread in full and makes this pass a loss.", "logged": "2026-08-14", "article": "why-is-reddit-rddt-stock-up-sp-500-inclusion", "entry": { "spot": 178.37, "session": "intraday", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": 7, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Spread priced from mid-market: $185 call bid $5.10, $190 call ask $3.60. Breakeven $186.50." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 777, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": null, "notes": "Logged at low conviction on purpose: the skew is genuinely rich and the pass may well cost. The site's only structural loss to date was a short-premium range breached, which is the precedent weighing on this row.", "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "rddt-sep-put-fade-2026-08-14", "ticker": "RDDT", "category": "options-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "long put, the post-inclusion fade, $160P Sep 18 at $4.55 ask", "thesis": "The index pop fades once the price-insensitive buyer is done, and RDDT trades below $155.45 by the September 18 expiry, which is 1.7% below the pre-announcement close.", "conviction": 6, "catalyst": "Index demand ends after the Aug 17 auction and the Aug 18 inclusion; no company catalyst before September expiry", "invalidation": "RDDT holding above $160 into September expiry, which would mean the short covering permanently tightened the float rather than producing a spike.", "logged": "2026-08-14", "article": "why-is-reddit-rddt-stock-up-sp-500-inclusion", "entry": { "spot": 179.09, "session": "intraday", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": 14.4, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Sep 18 ATM straddle ran 14.4% of spot at the $180 strike. Put cost is 2.5% of spot; breakeven $155.45." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 777, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": null, "notes": "The one position on the week rather than a pass. Taken because the chain's skew makes downside cheap: the $190 call at +6.5% cost $3.40 against $1.29 for the $167.50 put at -6.1%.", "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } } ] }, { "week_of": "2026-08-03", "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "notes": "Seeded 2026-08-14 from the site's first scorecard, which graded the whole backlog: every trade log from the week-ahead hub of August 3-7 plus the previews that spilled into the following week. Figures are transcribed from the published scorecard and its source articles, not re-researched. Calls this old carry no conviction score and no SPY benchmark; both are recorded from 2026-08-14 onward and are never backfilled. Earlier calls (July) are not in the ledger: the August 1 audit found only one July piece had published an entry price, so those calls cannot be reconstructed to this schema.", "calls": [ { "id": "pltr-long-straddle-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "PLTR", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long straddle into the print", "thesis": "The realised move stays close enough to the 10-15% implied that buying the straddle at $125.65 does not pay.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 3 after the close", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-03", "article": "palantir-pltr-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-3", "entry": { "spot": 125.65, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-03", "implied_move_pct": 10, "implied_move_high_pct": 15, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": 29.4, "exit_spot": 162.66, "exit_date": "2026-08-04", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "reaction session close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "Revenue grew 93% and the full-year guide jumped to $8.15-8.16bn. The straddle would have paid for itself more than twice over. The week's biggest single miss." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "pltr-short-premium-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "PLTR", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "short premium into the print (any structure)", "thesis": "Selling premium into the print risks a gap beyond the 10-15% implied; both tails are live with consensus above the guide.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 3 after the close", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-03", "article": "palantir-pltr-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-3", "entry": { "spot": 125.65, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-03", "implied_move_pct": 10, "implied_move_high_pct": 15, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": 29.4, "exit_spot": 162.66, "exit_date": "2026-08-04", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "reaction session close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "A premium seller at 10-15% implied would have been blown through by the 29.4% move." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "pltr-postprint-long-2026-08-03", "ticker": "PLTR", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "conditional post-print long (shares or 1-2 month calls)", "thesis": "If the full-year guide reaches roughly $7.83bn, the raise sustains a move beyond the reaction session; entry struck off the Aug 4 open.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings guide, Aug 3 after the close", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-03", "article": "palantir-pltr-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-3", "entry": { "spot": null, "session": null, "date": null, "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Condition triggered (guide landed at $8.15-8.16bn); the Aug 4 open entry has not been sourced." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "pending", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": "Carries to the next scorecard once an entry price is sourced rather than getting an invented one." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "amd-long-straddle-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "AMD", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long straddle into the print", "thesis": "The realised move stays inside the 12.3% implied; a straddle at $484.64 does not cover its premium.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 4 after the close", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "amd-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-4", "entry": { "spot": 484.64, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-03", "implied_move_pct": 12.3, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": -0.3, "exit_spot": 483.36, "exit_date": "2026-08-07", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "week close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "Essentially flat from the $484.64 spot to Friday's close, well inside implied." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "amd-short-premium-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "AMD", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "short premium into the print (any structure)", "thesis": "Not worth selling the 12.3% implied; the print can clear it.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 4 after the close", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "amd-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-4", "entry": { "spot": 484.64, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-03", "implied_move_pct": 12.3, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": -0.3, "exit_spot": 483.36, "exit_date": "2026-08-07", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "week close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "Selling premium here would have been the easy trade; the move stayed essentially flat." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "amd-conditional-long-2026-08-03", "ticker": "AMD", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "conditional post-print long (proxy entry)", "thesis": "The data-center print supports a hold beyond the reaction session; tracked from a ~$482.05 proxy entry of Aug 5.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 4 after the close", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "amd-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-4", "entry": { "spot": 482.05, "session": null, "date": "2026-08-05", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Approximate proxy entry, as logged in the scorecard's open-positions table." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": { "value": 483.36, "date": "2026-08-07", "label": "Aug 7 close", "note": "Roughly flat." }, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": 0.27175604190436964, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "shop-long-straddle-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "SHOP", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long straddle into the print", "thesis": "The realised move stays inside the ~12.5% implied; a straddle at the $126.88 close does not pay.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 5", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "shopify-shop-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-5", "entry": { "spot": 126.88, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-03", "implied_move_pct": 12.5, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "The preview originally quoted ~$117.6; the site's own correction settled the Aug 3 close at $126.88." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": 13.7, "exit_spot": 144.24, "exit_date": "2026-08-05", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "reaction session close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "Cleared the implied even on the conservative reading." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "shop-short-premium-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "SHOP", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "short premium into the print (any structure)", "thesis": "Not worth selling the ~12.5% implied; the May precedent was a 16% move.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 5", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "shopify-shop-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-5", "entry": { "spot": 126.88, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-03", "implied_move_pct": 12.5, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": 13.7, "exit_spot": 144.24, "exit_date": "2026-08-05", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "reaction session close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "The 13.7% move blew through the implied; a premium seller would have lost." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "shop-postprint-long-2026-08-03", "ticker": "SHOP", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "conditional post-print long (shares or 1-2 month calls)", "thesis": "If gross profit growth lands at the top of guide with revenue in line or better, the move extends; entry struck off the Aug 5 open reaction.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 5", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "shopify-shop-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-5", "entry": { "spot": null, "session": null, "date": null, "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Condition triggered; the post-print entry has not been sourced." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "pending", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": "Carries to the next scorecard once an entry price is sourced." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "ddog-long-straddle-2026-08-03", "ticker": "DDOG", "category": "volatility", "stance": "long", "structure": "long straddle into the print", "thesis": "The realised move beats the 13% implied; recent realised moves in this name have been clearing implied.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 6", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "datadog-ddog-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-6", "entry": { "spot": 273.6, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-03", "implied_move_pct": 13, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "The preview's log briefly carried a stale $254.79 spot; corrected in place to the actual Aug 3 close." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": 17, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": "reaction move settled", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "Realised move near 17% against 13% implied, approximate. Second straight quarter this exact setup rewarded buying volatility. One of the week's two genuine buy calls." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": 30.76923076923077, "return_basis": "modeled", "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "ddog-short-premium-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "DDOG", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "short premium into the print (any structure)", "thesis": "Do not sell the 13% implied; the realised move can clear it.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 6", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "datadog-ddog-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-6", "entry": { "spot": 273.6, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-03", "implied_move_pct": 13, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": 17, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": "reaction move settled", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "The ~17% realised move would have blown through a seller at 13% implied." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "ttd-long-straddle-2026-08-03", "ticker": "TTD", "category": "volatility", "stance": "long", "structure": "long straddle into the print", "thesis": "The realised move beats the 13% implied in either direction.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 6", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "trade-desk-ttd-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-6", "entry": { "spot": 18.3, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-03", "implied_move_pct": 13, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": -24.6, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": "reaction move settled", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "A 24.6% collapse after a soft Q3 guide cleared the 13% implied. One of the week's two genuine buy calls." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": 89.23076923076924, "return_basis": "modeled", "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "ttd-short-premium-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "TTD", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "short premium into the print (any structure)", "thesis": "Do not sell the 13% implied; the realised move can clear it.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 6", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "trade-desk-ttd-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-6", "entry": { "spot": 18.3, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-03", "implied_move_pct": 13, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": -24.6, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": "reaction move settled", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "The 24.6% drop would have crushed a premium seller." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "ttwo-long-straddle-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "TTWO", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long straddle into the print", "thesis": "The realised move stays inside the 7.7% implied; the straddle does not pay.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Earnings, Aug 7", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-03", "article": "take-two-ttwo-earnings-preview-august-7-gta-6-preorders", "entry": { "spot": 242.92, "session": null, "date": null, "implied_move_pct": 7.7, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Spot as logged in the preview; session not recorded at the time." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": 1.5, "exit_spot": 246.5, "exit_date": "2026-08-07", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "week close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "+1.5% from the logged spot (+6% from the last pre-print close), inside the 7.7% implied either way." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "ttwo-short-premium-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "TTWO", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "short premium into the print (any structure)", "thesis": "Not worth selling the 7.7% implied into a GTA 6 preorder catalyst.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Earnings, Aug 7", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-03", "article": "take-two-ttwo-earnings-preview-august-7-gta-6-preorders", "entry": { "spot": 242.92, "session": null, "date": null, "implied_move_pct": 7.7, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": 1.5, "exit_spot": 246.5, "exit_date": "2026-08-07", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "week close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "The move stayed inside implied; a premium seller would have collected." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "vst-any-position-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "VST", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "any pre-print options position", "thesis": "Nothing about the setup justifies paying or selling the 6.4% implied; stand aside.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 7", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "vistra-vst-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-7", "entry": { "spot": 141.38, "session": "close", "date": "2026-07-31", "implied_move_pct": 6.4, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "The preview dated this spot Aug 3; the dollar figure was actually the prior session's (Jul 31) close. Corrected in the scorecard." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": -0.6, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": "reaction move settled", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "Reiterated guidance, -0.6% move, no trade to regret." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "oklo-any-position-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "OKLO", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "any pre-print position", "thesis": "The ~13% implied is not worth paying or selling around the reactor and earnings catalysts; stand aside.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Groves reactor criticality plus Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 7", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "oklo-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-7", "entry": { "spot": 41.22, "session": "close", "date": "2026-07-31", "implied_move_pct": 13, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "The preview dated this spot Aug 3; the dollar figure was actually the prior session's (Jul 31) close. Corrected in the scorecard." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": 17.5, "exit_spot": 48.42, "exit_date": "2026-08-07", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "week close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "The reactor going critical moved the stock about 4% on the day; the real move came Friday with earnings and a reactor-sales update. The original write-up blamed the wrong day and the wrong size; corrected in the scorecard." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "cava-any-position-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "CAVA", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "any pre-print position", "thesis": "The realised move stays inside the 11-14% implied; no position earns its risk.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 11", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "cava-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-11", "entry": { "spot": 65.23, "session": null, "date": null, "implied_move_pct": 11, "implied_move_high_pct": 14, "note": "Spot as logged in the preview; session not recorded at the time." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": 6.5, "exit_spot": 69.47, "exit_date": "2026-08-12", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "reaction session close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "Corrected to a win in the scorecard: the preview had marked it a loss off a +15.3% intraday quote. Close-to-close from the $60.81 pre-print close was +14.2%, a near miss at worst; from the logged $65.23 spot it was +6.5%, comfortably inside implied." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "uber-long-straddle-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "UBER", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long straddle into the print", "thesis": "The realised move stays inside the 7-8% implied; the straddle does not pay.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 5", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "uber-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-5", "entry": { "spot": 71.61, "session": null, "date": null, "implied_move_pct": 7, "implied_move_high_pct": 8, "note": "Spot as logged in the preview; session not recorded at the time." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": -4.8, "exit_spot": 68.18, "exit_date": "2026-08-05", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "reaction session close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "Gross bookings of $58bn cleared the top of guidance and the stock still only moved -4.8%, inside implied." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "uber-short-premium-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "UBER", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "short premium into the print (any structure)", "thesis": "Not worth selling the 7-8% implied into the print.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 5", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "uber-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-5", "entry": { "spot": 71.61, "session": null, "date": null, "implied_move_pct": 7, "implied_move_high_pct": 8, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": -4.8, "exit_spot": 68.18, "exit_date": "2026-08-05", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "reaction session close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "The move stayed inside implied; a premium seller would have collected." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "dis-any-position-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "DIS", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "any pre-print options position", "thesis": "The realised move stays inside the ~6% implied; no position earns its risk.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "FQ3 2026 earnings, Aug 5", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "disney-dis-q3-fy2026-earnings-preview-august-5", "entry": { "spot": 98.14, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-03", "implied_move_pct": 6, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Implied from a single source, as flagged in the preview." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": 3.7, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": "2026-08-05", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "reaction session close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "Reiterated guidance; the move stayed inside implied." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "dis-postprint-long-2026-08-03", "ticker": "DIS", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "conditional post-print long (shares or 1-2 month calls)", "thesis": "If the FY adjusted EPS growth guide holds at ~12%+ with parks operating income up, the print supports a long; entry struck off the Aug 5 open reaction.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "FQ3 2026 earnings, Aug 5", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "disney-dis-q3-fy2026-earnings-preview-august-5", "entry": { "spot": null, "session": null, "date": null, "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Condition triggered; the post-print entry has not been sourced." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "pending", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": "Carries to the next scorecard once an entry price is sourced." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "lly-any-position-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "LLY", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "any pre-print options position", "thesis": "The realised move stays inside the ~7% implied; no position earns its risk.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 5", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "eli-lilly-lly-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-5", "entry": { "spot": 1121.36, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-03", "implied_move_pct": 6.9, "implied_move_high_pct": 7.4, "note": "Quoted 6.9-7.4% across sources; the scorecard graded against ~7%." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": 4.5, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": "reaction move settled", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "Approximately +4.5%, inside implied." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "lly-postprint-long-2026-08-03", "ticker": "LLY", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "conditional post-print long (shares or defined-risk call spread)", "thesis": "If FY guidance is raised, the print supports a long; entry struck off the Aug 5 open reaction.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 5", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "eli-lilly-lly-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-5", "entry": { "spot": null, "session": null, "date": null, "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Condition triggered; the post-print entry has not been sourced." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "pending", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": "Carries to the next scorecard once an entry price is sourced." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "spcx-long-put-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "SPCX", "category": "options-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long put into the unlock week", "thesis": "The lockup expiry does not force the stock down hard enough to pay for downside; do not own puts.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Lockup expiry plus first earnings print, week of Aug 3", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-03", "article": "spacex-spcx-first-earnings-preview-august-4", "entry": { "spot": 108.37, "session": null, "date": null, "implied_move_pct": 12.5, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Weekly implied; spot as logged across the preview and the lockup piece." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": 22.8, "exit_spot": 133.11, "exit_date": "2026-08-07", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "week close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "The stock rallied 22.8% through the unlock and the first print; puts would have been destroyed." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "spcx-long-straddle-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "SPCX", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long straddle into the unlock week", "thesis": "The realised move stays inside the 12.5% weekly implied; the straddle does not pay.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Lockup expiry plus first earnings print, week of Aug 3", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-03", "article": "spacex-spcx-first-earnings-preview-august-4", "entry": { "spot": 108.37, "session": null, "date": null, "implied_move_pct": 12.5, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": 22.8, "exit_spot": 133.11, "exit_date": "2026-08-07", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "week close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "An unlock and a first earnings print stacked on the same week blew through the weekly implied." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "spcx-shares-long-2026-08-03", "ticker": "SPCX", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "shares, post-unlock momentum long", "thesis": "With the unlock absorbed and the first print in, the re-rate continues from the $114.92 Aug 6 close.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Post-unlock, post-print continuation", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-07", "article": "why-is-spacex-spcx-stock-up-after-lockup-expiry", "entry": { "spot": 114.92, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-06", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": { "value": 141.29, "date": "2026-08-13", "label": "Aug 13 close", "note": null }, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": 22.946397493908787, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "smci-long-straddle-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "SMCI", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long straddle into the print", "thesis": "The realised move stays inside the 18% implied; the straddle at $28.40 does not pay.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "FQ4 2026 earnings, Aug 11", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "super-micro-smci-fq4-2026-earnings-preview-august-11", "entry": { "spot": 28.4, "session": "close", "date": null, "implied_move_pct": 18, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": 32.4, "exit_spot": 37.61, "exit_date": "2026-08-12", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "settled close after the print", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "Corrected grade: marked a win in real time off an early 6-9% after-hours read, then the stock kept running to a 32.4% close-to-close gain. Grading a straddle off the first after-hours tick instead of the settled close is exactly what the trade-log rules exist to prevent." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "smci-short-premium-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "SMCI", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "short premium into the print (any structure)", "thesis": "Do not sell the 18% implied; the print can clear it.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "FQ4 2026 earnings, Aug 11", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "super-micro-smci-fq4-2026-earnings-preview-august-11", "entry": { "spot": 28.4, "session": "close", "date": null, "implied_move_pct": 18, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": 32.4, "exit_spot": 37.61, "exit_date": "2026-08-12", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "settled close after the print", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "A seller at 18% implied against a 32% realised move would have been blown out." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "smci-shares-long-2026-08-03", "ticker": "SMCI", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "shares, post-print long", "thesis": "Long from $34.99 at the Aug 12 open; the post-print move extends rather than fades.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "FQ4 2026 earnings follow-through", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-12", "article": "super-micro-smci-fq4-2026-earnings-preview-august-11", "entry": { "spot": 34.99, "session": "open", "date": "2026-08-12", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": { "value": 39.16, "date": "2026-08-13", "label": "Aug 13 close", "note": null }, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": 11.917690768791056, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "se-long-straddle-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "SE", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long straddle into the print", "thesis": "The realised move stays inside the 19.1% implied; the straddle does not pay.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 11", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-06", "article": "sea-limited-se-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-11", "entry": { "spot": 114.91, "session": "close", "date": null, "implied_move_pct": 19.1, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": 14.5, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": "2026-08-11", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "reaction session close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "+14.5% against a 19.1% implied; a big move that still stayed inside what the options priced." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "se-short-premium-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "SE", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "short premium into the print (any structure)", "thesis": "Do not sell the 19.1% implied; the print can clear even a wide number.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 11", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-06", "article": "sea-limited-se-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-11", "entry": { "spot": 114.91, "session": "close", "date": null, "implied_move_pct": 19.1, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": 14.5, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": "2026-08-11", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "reaction session close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "A premium seller collected clean; the move stayed inside implied." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "se-shares-long-2026-08-03", "ticker": "SE", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "shares, post-print long", "thesis": "Long from the $114.91 entry close; the print's strength carries the stock beyond the reaction.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings follow-through", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-06", "article": "sea-limited-se-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-11", "entry": { "spot": 114.91, "session": "close", "date": null, "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Entry close as logged in the scorecard's open-positions table." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": { "value": 128.11, "date": "2026-08-12", "label": "Aug 12 close", "note": null }, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": 11.487250892002443, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "mu-long-puts-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "MU", "category": "options-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long puts on the gap, Aug 7 weekly", "thesis": "The gap does not extend into a third straight down day big enough to pay for at-the-money puts.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Memory selloff, Aug 3 gap down", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-03", "article": "why-is-micron-mu-stock-down-today-august-3-2026", "entry": { "spot": 801, "session": "premarket", "date": "2026-08-03", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Premarket 8:00am ET quote; directional call, no implied move logged." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": 9.6, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": "2026-08-07", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "week close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "The stock rallied 9.6% into Friday instead of falling further; the puts would have expired worthless." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "mu-premium-selling-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "MU", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "selling premium (covered call or cash-secured put), any August expiry", "thesis": "Do not sell MU premium into a tape that just printed 16% and 26% sessions in the memory complex.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Memory selloff, Aug 3 gap down", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-03", "article": "why-is-micron-mu-stock-down-today-august-3-2026", "entry": { "spot": 801, "session": "premarket", "date": "2026-08-03", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "unscorable", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": "Generic structure with no strike or expiry pinned and no implied move logged; the scorecard left it out of the hit rate rather than forcing a grade." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "sndk-strangle-threshold-2026-08-03", "ticker": "SNDK", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long strangle into the Aug 5 print, Aug 7 weekly, first strikes either side of spot", "thesis": "At an implied near 25% the strangle is a pass; under 18% it is worth taking. The move either clears the price paid or it does not.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "SNDK Q4 FY2026 earnings, Aug 5", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-03", "article": "why-is-micron-mu-stock-down-today-august-3-2026", "entry": { "spot": 1214.83, "session": "close", "date": "2026-07-31", "implied_move_pct": 17.5, "implied_move_high_pct": 25, "note": "Implied reported at 17.5% (Benzinga) and ~25% (TipRanks); never resolved." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "unscorable", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": "The logged implied move was disputed between 17.5% and 25% with no way to resolve it, so a threshold call keyed to that number cannot be graded." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "mu-puts-selling-pass-2026-07-16", "ticker": "MU", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "selling MU puts (suspended), any near-dated expiry", "thesis": "Put selling stays suspended while the CXMT commodity-DRAM scare can keep the slide going.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "CXMT supply threat", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-07-16", "article": "mu-below-900-cxmt-china-dram-threat", "entry": { "spot": 903, "session": "close", "date": "2026-07-15", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Approximate; the trade log was added Aug 4, after the piece, which predates the log rule." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "unscorable", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": "Generic structure with no strike or expiry pinned; the scorecard left it out of the hit rate rather than forcing a grade." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "mu-sndk-pair-2026-07-16", "ticker": "MU", "category": "options-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "pair: MU puts against long SNDK", "thesis": "SNDK's shortage exposure beats MU's commodity exposure if the DRAM scare is real.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "CXMT supply threat", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-07-16", "article": "mu-below-900-cxmt-china-dram-threat", "entry": { "spot": null, "session": null, "date": null, "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Nothing was logged: no strikes, no expiry, no prices." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "unscorable", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": "Marked ungradeable in the article's own August 4 review: nothing was logged to grade against." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "googl-calls-chase-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "GOOGL", "category": "options-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "chasing calls on the DeepMind-shakeup dip", "thesis": "The dip is not a call-buying setup; any bounce stays too small to cover the premium.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "DeepMind leadership shakeup, Aug 5", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-05", "article": "why-is-google-googl-stock-down-today-deepmind-shakeup", "entry": { "spot": 379.72, "session": "intraday", "date": "2026-08-05", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": -9.5, "exit_spot": 343.8, "exit_date": "2026-08-11", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "graded at the Aug 11 close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "The stock kept falling to $343.80 by Aug 11; calls would have been destroyed." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "googl-short-premium-zone-2026-08-03", "ticker": "GOOGL", "category": "volatility", "stance": "short", "structure": "short premium, $366-381 strike zone", "thesis": "GOOGL stays inside the $366-381 zone while the shakeup noise settles.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "DeepMind leadership shakeup, Aug 5", "invalidation": "A close below $366 breaks the range and the position.", "logged": "2026-08-05", "article": "why-is-google-googl-stock-down-today-deepmind-shakeup", "entry": { "spot": 379.72, "session": "intraday", "date": "2026-08-05", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": -9.5, "exit_spot": 343.8, "exit_date": "2026-08-11", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "range breached", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "The stock closed the week at $354.30 and fell to $343.80 by Aug 11, a full 9.5% below the zone. The week's one structural loss: a defined range only protects the seller while price stays inside it. No premium was logged, so no return on risk is computable." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "meta-calls-chase-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "META", "category": "options-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "chasing calls into the gap", "thesis": "The Iran-driven gap does not extend far enough to cover call premium; do not chase.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Iran-driven Monday gap, Aug 3", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-03", "article": "why-is-meta-meta-stock-up-today-august-3-2026", "entry": { "spot": 580, "session": "intraday", "date": "2026-08-03", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Approximate intraday quote on the gap; the baseline is a rough read, not a close." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": 2, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": "2026-08-07", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "week close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "Follow-through of roughly 2% by Friday, approximate; not enough to cover premium." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "meta-short-premium-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "META", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "short premium into the gap (any structure)", "thesis": "Do not sell premium into an Iran-driven gap; the tail is live.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Iran-driven Monday gap, Aug 3", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-03", "article": "why-is-meta-meta-stock-up-today-august-3-2026", "entry": { "spot": 580, "session": "intraday", "date": "2026-08-03", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Approximate intraday quote on the gap." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": 2, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": "2026-08-07", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "week close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "Follow-through was only around 2%, small enough that a premium seller would have collected. The margin is approximate because the baseline is a rough intraday read; the direction of the grade is not." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "dkng-long-straddle-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "DKNG", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long straddle into the print", "thesis": "The realised move stays inside the ~9% implied; the straddle does not pay.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 6", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "draftkings-dkng-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-6", "entry": { "spot": 22.17, "session": "close", "date": null, "implied_move_pct": 9, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Last pre-print close as graded in the scorecard; implied quotes conflicted (8.7-9.5%), low confidence." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": 8.4, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": "earnings-day move", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "A narrow win: +8.4% against ~9% implied, a near miss that still favored standing aside from the straddle." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "dkng-short-premium-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "DKNG", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "short premium into the print (any structure)", "thesis": "Do not sell the ~9% implied; the 8-quarter median realised move is 12.6%.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 6", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "draftkings-dkng-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-6", "entry": { "spot": 22.17, "session": "close", "date": null, "implied_move_pct": 9, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": 8.4, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": "earnings-day move", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "A narrow loss: the move stayed just inside implied, so the seller would have collected." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "dkng-postcall-long-2026-08-03", "ticker": "DKNG", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "conditional post-call long (shares or 1-2 month calls)", "thesis": "If FY guidance holds and Predictions discloses credible volume, the print supports a long struck after the Aug 7 call.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings call", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "draftkings-dkng-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-6", "entry": { "spot": null, "session": null, "date": null, "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "unscorable", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": "The site's own coverage still calls the trigger's outcome unverified, so whether this row ever became live cannot be established." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "app-long-straddle-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "APP", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long straddle into the print", "thesis": "The realised move stays inside the 12-13% implied; the straddle at $406.16 does not pay.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 5", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "applovin-app-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-5", "entry": { "spot": 406.16, "session": null, "date": null, "implied_move_pct": 12, "implied_move_high_pct": 13, "note": "Spot as logged in the preview; session not recorded at the time." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": -17.4, "exit_spot": 335.67, "exit_date": "2026-08-06", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "settled close after the print", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "Thursday's regular close was worse than the after-hours print originally quoted; the move cleared implied on the downside." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "app-short-premium-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "APP", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "short premium into the print (any structure)", "thesis": "Do not sell the 12-13% implied; the print can clear it.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 5", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "applovin-app-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-5", "entry": { "spot": 406.16, "session": null, "date": null, "implied_move_pct": 12, "implied_move_high_pct": 13, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": -17.4, "exit_spot": 335.67, "exit_date": "2026-08-06", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "settled close after the print", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "The -17.4% move would have blown through a premium seller." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "skhy-long-calls-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "SKHY", "category": "options-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long calls into the shareholder-return catalyst", "thesis": "The shareholder-return announcement is not close enough to certain to pay for calls; wait.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Expected shareholder-return announcement, Aug 4", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-03", "article": "skhy-august-4-shareholder-return-catalyst-explained", "entry": { "spot": 143.73, "session": null, "date": null, "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "No implied move was ever logged; graded on direction alone." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": 15.3, "exit_spot": 165.67, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": "graded at scorecard time", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "The ADR ran +15.3% while the announcement the piece was watching for still had not been made. Right about the catalyst, wrong about the stock." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "skhy-short-puts-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "SKHY", "category": "options-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "short puts into the shareholder-return catalyst", "thesis": "Not worth being short puts ahead of an announcement that may not come.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Expected shareholder-return announcement, Aug 4", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-03", "article": "skhy-august-4-shareholder-return-catalyst-explained", "entry": { "spot": 143.73, "session": null, "date": null, "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "No implied move was ever logged; graded on direction alone." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": 15.3, "exit_spot": 165.67, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": "graded at scorecard time", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "A put seller would have collected the full premium on the +15.3% run. Two passes, one direction, two losses." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "sndk-dip-buy-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "SNDK", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "buying the extended-hours dip, immediately post-print", "thesis": "The extended-hours dip (roughly $1,283-1,296) is not the low; the next regular close lands below the dip-buy zone.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q4 FY2026 earnings, Aug 5 after the close", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-05", "article": "why-is-sandisk-sndk-stock-down-after-earnings", "entry": { "spot": 1350.5, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-05", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Aug 5 regular close; extended-hours reports ran 4-5% below it." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": -6.8, "exit_spot": 1258.58, "exit_date": "2026-08-06", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "graded against the Aug 6 close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "The Aug 6 close of $1,258.58 landed below the extended-hours entry zone, so not buying the dip won." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "sndk-premium-selling-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "SNDK", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "selling premium into the post-print collapse in implied, Aug or Sep expiry", "thesis": "Selling the vol crush is the reflex trade after every print, and realised moves in memory kept beating implied in July, which is when that reflex is most expensive.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q4 FY2026 earnings aftermath", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-05", "article": "why-is-sandisk-sndk-stock-down-after-earnings", "entry": { "spot": 1350.5, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-05", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "unscorable", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": "Generic structure with no strike or expiry pinned; the scorecard left it out of the hit rate rather than forcing a grade." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "sndk-confirmation-calls-2026-08-03", "ticker": "SNDK", "category": "options-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "two-month confirmation calls, Oct expiry, struck off the Aug 6 open", "thesis": "The guide confirms the shortage, so paying up a few percent after the fact removes the coin flip and still captures the re-rate.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q4 FY2026 guide, confirmed Aug 5 after the close", "invalidation": "Fiscal Q1 revenue guided to accelerate again, or margins guided below 80%, at the Aug 13 Investor Day.", "logged": "2026-08-05", "article": "why-is-sandisk-sndk-stock-down-after-earnings", "entry": { "spot": 1258.58, "session": "open", "date": "2026-08-06", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Underlying near $1,258.58 at the Aug 6 strike; the option leg was never priced from a live chain." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": { "value": 1528.11, "date": "2026-08-13", "label": "underlying, Aug 13 close", "note": "Underlying +21.4%; the option leg has no live mark." }, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": 21.415404662397307, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "abnb-any-position-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "ABNB", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "any pre-print options position", "thesis": "Nothing about the setup justifies a pre-print options position; stand aside.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 6", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "airbnb-abnb-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-6", "entry": { "spot": 151.6, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-03", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Approximate close; no implied move was sourced." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "unscorable", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": "No implied move was logged, so a pass on an options position has nothing to be graded against." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "abnb-postprint-long-2026-08-03", "ticker": "ABNB", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "conditional post-print long (shares or 1-2 month calls)", "thesis": "If EPS clears ~$1.20 with revenue in the guided band, the print supports a long struck off the Aug 7 open.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 6", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "airbnb-abnb-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-6", "entry": { "spot": null, "session": null, "date": null, "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Condition triggered; the Aug 7 open entry has not been sourced." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "pending", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": "Carries to the next scorecard once an entry price is sourced." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "crcl-directional-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "CRCL", "category": "options-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "any directional pre-print position", "thesis": "Direction is not knowable from the setup; no directional position into the print.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 5", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-03", "article": "circle-crcl-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-5", "entry": { "spot": 61.59, "session": "intraday", "date": "2026-08-03", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "No implied move sourced; IV30 quoted near 95%." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "unscorable", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": "No implied move number was ever logged (only an IV30 quote), so the pass cannot be graded against implied." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "crcl-postprint-long-2026-08-03", "ticker": "CRCL", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "conditional post-print long", "thesis": "If circulation grew and distribution costs held flat or better, the print supports a long struck after the call.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 5", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-03", "article": "circle-crcl-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-5", "entry": { "spot": null, "session": null, "date": null, "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Condition triggered; the post-call entry has not been sourced." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "pending", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": "Carries to the next scorecard once an entry price is sourced." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "amat-any-position-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "AMAT", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "any pre-print options position", "thesis": "Nothing about the setup justifies a pre-print options position; stand aside.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "FQ3 2026 earnings, Aug 13 after the close", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "applied-materials-amat-fq3-2026-earnings-preview-august-13", "entry": { "spot": 508, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-03", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Approximate close; no implied move was sourced." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": "Reported Thursday evening Aug 13 into after-hours-only data as the scorecard went to press; grades against the settled Aug 14 close in the next scorecard." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } } ] } ] }