Earnings move database · CC BY 4.0 · Updated 2026-09-30

AAP: Expectations vs Outcomes

Every tracked Advance Auto Parts print on both axes: what the straddle charged going in against what the stock did coming out, and what management guided against what the company printed.

Rolling ratio

1.72x

mean of 1 scored print

Beat the straddle

100%

of 1 scored prints

Cleared its guide

n/a

no guidance tracked

One scored print is not a track record. A rolling ratio only starts meaning something after several quarters, and this name has 1. Read the row, not the average.

Print by Print

Q2 2026

Scored

Reported 2026-08-20 (before open) · reaction session 2026-08-20

Implied
±14.3%
struck about a week out, 2026-08-14
Realised
-24.6%
close to close
Ratio
1.72x
+10.3% vs priced
Rolling
1.72x
after 1 scored

56.18 to 42.39

The largest realised move in this batch: 24.55% down over the session, from 56.18 to 42.39, against a 14.3% implied, a ratio of 1.72x. The preview named the mechanism in advance, that 60.4 million shares outstanding is a small float and small floats gap through their implied move, and passed on selling premium for that reason. The implied is the 57 straddle expiring August 21, taken from this site's earnings calendar dataset stamped August 15 against the August 14 close, so it was struck four sessions before the print. The preview's own scoring note rounded the move to about 25%.

Our preview, trade logstockanalysis.com daily close table: 56.18 on 2026-08-19, 42.39 on 2026-08-20Yahoo Finance daily chart series, an independent feed agreeing to the cent on both closes

Our Coverage

AAP rows from the Implied vs Realised Earnings Move Database, Regards of Wallstreet. Licensed CC BY 4.0. Methodology · Full database