MU FQ4 2026Scored
2026-09-30 after close · reaction 2026-10-01
- Implied
- ±7.6%
- Realised
- +3.0%
- Ratio
- 0.40x
Tools · Free Dataset · CC BY 4.0 · Updated 2026-10-01
The Earnings Expectations Database
Two expectations get set before every earnings print, by two different parties, and both are checkable afterwards. The options market prices a move; the stock delivers one. Management guides a range; the company prints a number. One row per ticker per quarter holds both, with the session and the source named on every figure. Rows we could not verify stay on the page, marked unresolved. Methodology and citation.
Download JSONMoves CSVGuidance CSVGuidance JSONMethodologyChangelogEarnings calendar
Realised beat implied
45%
21 of 47 scored prints moved further than the options priced
Median ratio
0.96x
realised divided by implied, across every scored print
Median surprise
-0.4%
realised move minus implied move, in percentage points
Awaiting a close
0
6 unresolved · 57 tickers tracked
What This Database Says So Far
The two headline numbers now point different ways. Across 47 scored prints the realised move beat the implied move 21 of 47 times, for a median ratio of 0.96x, so the typical print moved slightly less than the options charged for it. The strict subset, which drops rows measured on a looser basis, holds 33 of those and lands at 1.06x, on the other side of 1.00x. Read both, and treat neither as the answer on its own.
The five prints this database launched with ran a median of 1.82x, which looked like the opposite of the textbook, where option sellers collect a volatility risk premium on average. Rows added since have pulled that median down, and the all-rows figure has now crossed below 1.00x. Two things to weigh before reading a change of regime into that. The sample is dominated by one reporting season, in a market repricing AI capital spending week by week. And coverage follows what this site previews, so one name's back catalogue can move the median by itself: three older Nvidia prints, added in a single pass, were enough to do it. This is one season of evidence, not a law, and the point of keeping the series is to find out which it becomes.
Sample caveats in full on the methodology page, including why most tickers still have a single row and what that does to the rolling ratio.
Priced Against Delivered
Each scored print twice: the hollow bar is what the options charged, the solid bar is what the stock did. Wherever the solid bar runs past the hollow one, buying the move was the right side of the trade.
MSFT FQ4 20263.75x
Implied
4.0%
Realised
+15.0%
PLTR Q2 20262.36x
Implied
12.5%
Realised
+29.5%
BIDU Q2 20262.19x
Implied
5.8%
Realised
-12.7%
AAPL FQ3 20261.82x
Implied
4.0%
Realised
-7.3%
AAP Q2 20261.72x
Implied
14.3%
Realised
-24.6%
TTD Q2 20261.68x
Implied
13.0%
Realised
-21.9%
LZB FQ1 20271.65x
Implied
10.3%
Realised
-16.9%
FN FQ4 20261.61x
Implied
12.0%
Realised
-19.4%
APP Q2 20261.57x
Implied
12.5%
Realised
-19.7%
NVDA FQ2 20271.51x
Implied
5.8%
Realised
+8.7%
DDOG Q2 20261.46x
Implied
13.0%
Realised
-19.0%
ETOR Q2 20261.46x
Implied
9.4%
Realised
-13.7%
SHOP Q2 20261.36x
Implied
12.5%
Realised
+17.0%
EAT FQ4 20261.27x
Implied
8.7%
Realised
+11.1%
JD Q2 20261.24x
Implied
5.9%
Realised
-7.3%
META Q2 20261.23x
Implied
7.0%
Realised
-8.6%
NU Q2 20261.20x
Implied
7.8%
Realised
+9.3%
OKLO Q2 20261.14x
Implied
13.0%
Realised
+14.8%
SPCX Q2 20261.09x
Implied
12.5%
Realised
-13.6%
B Q2 20261.09x
Implied
5.9%
Realised
-6.4%
SMCI FQ4 20261.06x
Implied
18.0%
Realised
+19.0%
NVDA FQ4 20260.98x
Implied
5.6%
Realised
-5.5%
SKHY Q2 20260.96x
Implied
10.0%
Realised
-9.6%
TJX FQ2 20270.96x
Implied
4.4%
Realised
-4.2%
RUM Q2 20260.94x
Implied
12.1%
Realised
+11.4%
BIRK FQ3 20260.93x
Implied
12.5%
Realised
+11.6%
DKNG Q2 20260.92x
Implied
9.1%
Realised
+8.4%
TTWO FQ1 20270.78x
Implied
7.7%
Realised
+6.0%
UBER Q2 20260.71x
Implied
7.5%
Realised
-5.3%
LLY Q2 20260.68x
Implied
7.2%
Realised
+4.9%
KEYS FQ3 20260.67x
Implied
9.4%
Realised
-6.3%
TGT Q2 20260.64x
Implied
6.7%
Realised
+4.3%
DIS FQ3 20260.61x
Implied
6.0%
Realised
+3.6%
AMD Q2 20260.57x
Implied
12.3%
Realised
-7.0%
COTY FQ4 20260.56x
Implied
16.6%
Realised
-9.2%
COHR FQ4 20260.54x
Implied
14.8%
Realised
-8.0%
NTNX FQ4 20260.46x
Implied
14.9%
Realised
+6.8%
NVDA FQ3 20260.41x
Implied
7.7%
Realised
-3.1%
MU FQ4 20260.40x
Implied
7.6%
Realised
+3.0%
SNDK FQ4 20260.32x
Implied
21.3%
Realised
-6.8%
NVDA FQ1 20270.27x
Implied
6.5%
Realised
-1.8%
MRCY FQ4 20260.22x
Implied
16.0%
Realised
-3.6%
BABA FQ1 20270.22x
Implied
5.7%
Realised
+1.3%
CAH FQ4 20260.21x
Implied
6.2%
Realised
+1.3%
MNDY Q2 20260.21x
Implied
23.4%
Realised
-4.8%
VST Q2 20260.09x
Implied
6.4%
Realised
-0.6%
BILL FQ4 20260.05x
Implied
12.8%
Realised
-0.7%
Implied vs Realised
53 of 53 prints
| Ticker | Quarter | Status | Source | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU | FQ4 2026 | 2026-09-30after close | ±7.6% | +3.0% | 0.40xcontext | Scored | source · our take |
| NVDA | FQ2 2027 | 2026-08-26after close | ±5.8%quoted a week out | +8.7% | 1.51xcontext | Scored | source · our take |
| NTNX | FQ4 2026 | 2026-08-26after close | ±14.9%quoted a week out | +6.8% | 0.46xcontext | Scored | source · our take |
| BABA | FQ1 2027 | 2026-08-20before open | ±5.7%quoted a week out | +1.3% | 0.22x | Scored | source · our take |
| AAP | Q2 2026 | 2026-08-20before open | ±14.3%quoted a week out | -24.6% | 1.72x | Scored | source · our take |
| TJX | FQ2 2027 | 2026-08-19before open | ±4.4%quoted a week out | -4.2% | 0.96x | Scored | source · our take |
| TGT | Q2 2026 | 2026-08-19before open | 6.5-6.9%intraday quote | +4.3% | 0.64x | Scored | source · our take |
| COTY | FQ4 2026 | 2026-08-19after close | ±16.6%quoted a week out | -9.2% | 0.56x | Scored | source · our take |
| BILL | FQ4 2026 | 2026-08-19after close | ±12.8%quoted a week out | -0.7% | 0.05x | Scored | source · our take |
| MRCY | FQ4 2026 | 2026-08-18after close | ±16.0%quoted a week out | -3.6% | 0.22x | Scored | source · our take |
| LZB | FQ1 2027 | 2026-08-18after close | ±10.3%quoted a week out | -16.9% | 1.65x | Scored | source · our take |
| KEYS | FQ3 2026 | 2026-08-18after close | ±9.4%quoted a week out | -6.3% | 0.67x | Scored | source · our take |
| BIDU | Q2 2026 | 2026-08-18before open | ±5.8%quoted a week out | -12.7% | 2.19x | Scored | source · our take |
| FN | FQ4 2026 | 2026-08-17after close | ±12.0%quoted earlier | -19.4% | 1.61x | Scored | source · our take |
| NU | Q2 2026 | 2026-08-13after close | ±7.8%quoted a week out | +9.3% | 1.20x | Scored | source · our take |
| JD | Q2 2026 | 2026-08-13before open | ±5.9%quoted a week out | -7.3% | 1.24x | Scored | source · our take |
| BIRK | FQ3 2026 | 2026-08-13before open | ±12.5%quoted a week out | +11.6% | 0.93xcontext | Scored | source · our take |
| EAT | FQ4 2026 | 2026-08-12before open | ±8.7%quoted earlier | +11.1% | 1.27xcontext | Scored | source |
| COHR | FQ4 2026 | 2026-08-12after close | ±14.8%quoted a week out | -8.0% | 0.54x | Scored | source · our take |
| TME | Q2 2026 | 2026-08-11before open | ±10.0%quoted a week out | · | · | Unresolved | |
| SMCI | FQ4 2026 | 2026-08-11after close | ±18.0%quoted earlier | +19.0% | 1.06x | Scored | source · our take |
| ETOR | Q2 2026 | 2026-08-11before open | ±9.4%quoted earlier | -13.7% | 1.46xcontext | Scored | source · our take |
| CAH | FQ4 2026 | 2026-08-11before open | ±6.2%quoted earlier | +1.3% | 0.21x | Scored | source · our take |
| RUM | Q2 2026 | 2026-08-10after close | ±12.1%quoted earlier | +11.4% | 0.94x | Scored | source · our take |
| MNDY | Q2 2026 | 2026-08-10before open | ±23.4% | -4.8% | 0.21x | Scored | source |
| B | Q2 2026 | 2026-08-10before open | ±5.9% | -6.4% | 1.09x | Scored | source · our take |
| VST | Q2 2026 | 2026-08-07before open | ±6.4%quoted earlier | -0.6% | 0.09xcontext | Scored | source · our take |
| TTWO | FQ1 2027 | 2026-08-07before open | ±7.7%quoted earlier | +6.0% | 0.78x | Scored | source · our take |
| OKLO | Q2 2026 | 2026-08-07before open | ±13.0%quoted earlier | +14.8% | 1.14x | Scored | source · our take |
| TTD | Q2 2026 | 2026-08-06after close | ±13.0%quoted earlier | -21.9% | 1.68x | Scored | source · our take |
| DKNG | Q2 2026 | 2026-08-06after close | 8.7-9.5%quoted earlier | +8.4% | 0.92xcontext | Scored | source · our take |
| DDOG | Q2 2026 | 2026-08-06before open | ±13.0%quoted earlier | -19.0% | 1.46x | Scored | source · our take |
| UBER | Q2 2026 | 2026-08-05before open | 7-8%quoted earlier | -5.3% | 0.71x | Scored | source · our take |
| SNDK | FQ4 2026 | 2026-08-05after close | 17.5-25% | -6.8% | 0.32xcontext | Scored | source · our take |
| SHOP | Q2 2026 | 2026-08-05before open | ±12.5%quoted earlier | +17.0% | 1.36x | Scored | source · our take |
| LLY | Q2 2026 | 2026-08-05before open | 6.9-7.4%quoted earlier | +4.9% | 0.68x | Scored | source · our take |
| DIS | FQ3 2026 | 2026-08-05before open | ±6.0%quoted earlier | +3.6% | 0.61xcontext | Scored | source · our take |
| APP | Q2 2026 | 2026-08-05after close | 12-13%quoted earlier | -19.7% | 1.57x | Scored | source · our take |
| SPCX | Q2 2026 | 2026-08-04after close | ±12.5%quoted a week out | -13.6% | 1.09xcontext | Scored | source · our take |
| AMD | Q2 2026 | 2026-08-04after close | ±12.3%quoted earlier | -7.0% | 0.57x | Scored | source · our take |
| PLTR | Q2 2026 | 2026-08-03after close | 10-15%intraday quote | +29.5% | 2.36x | Scored | source · our take |
| AAPL | FQ3 2026 | 2026-07-30after close | ±4.0%quoted earlier | -7.3%approx | 1.82x | Scored | source · our take |
| SKHY | Q2 2026 | 2026-07-29before open | ±10.0%quoted a week out | -9.6%local listing, approx | 0.96xcontext | Scored | source |
| MSFT | FQ4 2026 | 2026-07-29after close | ±4.0%quoted a week out | +15.0%approx | 3.75x | Scored | source |
| META | Q2 2026 | 2026-07-29after close | ±7.0%quoted a week out | -8.6%approx | 1.23x | Scored | source · our take |
| INTC | Q2 2026 | 2026-07-23after close | ±8.0%quoted a week out | · | · | Unresolved | |
| TSLA | Q2 2026 | 2026-07-22after close | ±11.0%quoted a week out | · | · | Unresolved | our take |
| NOW | Q2 2026 | 2026-07-22after close | ±8.0%quoted a week out | · | · | Unresolved | our take |
| GOOGL | Q2 2026 | 2026-07-22after close | ±5.0%quoted a week out | · | · | Unresolved | our take |
| SOFI | Q2 2026 | 2026-07-21after close | ±9.0%quoted a week out | · | · | Unresolved | our take |
| NVDA | FQ1 2027 | 2026-05-20after close | ±6.5%intraday quote | -1.8% | 0.27xcontext | Scored | source |
| NVDA | FQ4 2026 | 2026-02-25after close | ±5.6%quoted earlier | -5.5% | 0.98x | Scored | source |
| NVDA | FQ3 2026 | 2025-11-19after close | ±7.7%quoted earlier | -3.1% | 0.41xcontext | Scored | source |
NVDA FQ2 2027Scored
2026-08-26 after close · reaction 2026-08-27
- Implied
- ±5.8%
- Realised
- +8.7%
- Ratio
- 1.51x
NTNX FQ4 2026Scored
2026-08-26 after close · reaction 2026-08-27
- Implied
- ±14.9%
- Realised
- +6.8%
- Ratio
- 0.46x
BABA FQ1 2027Scored
2026-08-20 before open · reaction 2026-08-20
- Implied
- ±5.7%
- Realised
- +1.3%
- Ratio
- 0.22x
AAP Q2 2026Scored
2026-08-20 before open · reaction 2026-08-20
- Implied
- ±14.3%
- Realised
- -24.6%
- Ratio
- 1.72x
TJX FQ2 2027Scored
2026-08-19 before open · reaction 2026-08-19
- Implied
- ±4.4%
- Realised
- -4.2%
- Ratio
- 0.96x
TGT Q2 2026Scored
2026-08-19 before open · reaction 2026-08-19
- Implied
- 6.5-6.9%
- Realised
- +4.3%
- Ratio
- 0.64x
COTY FQ4 2026Scored
2026-08-19 after close · reaction 2026-08-20
- Implied
- ±16.6%
- Realised
- -9.2%
- Ratio
- 0.56x
BILL FQ4 2026Scored
2026-08-19 after close · reaction 2026-08-20
- Implied
- ±12.8%
- Realised
- -0.7%
- Ratio
- 0.05x
MRCY FQ4 2026Scored
2026-08-18 after close · reaction 2026-08-19
- Implied
- ±16.0%
- Realised
- -3.6%
- Ratio
- 0.22x
LZB FQ1 2027Scored
2026-08-18 after close · reaction 2026-08-19
- Implied
- ±10.3%
- Realised
- -16.9%
- Ratio
- 1.65x
KEYS FQ3 2026Scored
2026-08-18 after close · reaction 2026-08-19
- Implied
- ±9.4%
- Realised
- -6.3%
- Ratio
- 0.67x
BIDU Q2 2026Scored
2026-08-18 before open · reaction 2026-08-18
- Implied
- ±5.8%
- Realised
- -12.7%
- Ratio
- 2.19x
FN FQ4 2026Scored
2026-08-17 after close · reaction 2026-08-18
- Implied
- ±12.0%
- Realised
- -19.4%
- Ratio
- 1.61x
NU Q2 2026Scored
2026-08-13 after close · reaction 2026-08-14
- Implied
- ±7.8%
- Realised
- +9.3%
- Ratio
- 1.20x
JD Q2 2026Scored
2026-08-13 before open · reaction 2026-08-13
- Implied
- ±5.9%
- Realised
- -7.3%
- Ratio
- 1.24x
BIRK FQ3 2026Scored
2026-08-13 before open · reaction 2026-08-13
- Implied
- ±12.5%
- Realised
- +11.6%
- Ratio
- 0.93x
EAT FQ4 2026Scored
2026-08-12 before open · reaction 2026-08-12
- Implied
- ±8.7%
- Realised
- +11.1%
- Ratio
- 1.27x
COHR FQ4 2026Scored
2026-08-12 after close · reaction 2026-08-13
- Implied
- ±14.8%
- Realised
- -8.0%
- Ratio
- 0.54x
TME Q2 2026Unresolved
2026-08-11 before open · reaction 2026-08-11
- Implied
- ±10.0%
- Realised
- n/a
- Ratio
- n/a
SMCI FQ4 2026Scored
2026-08-11 after close · reaction 2026-08-12
- Implied
- ±18.0%
- Realised
- +19.0%
- Ratio
- 1.06x
ETOR Q2 2026Scored
2026-08-11 before open · reaction 2026-08-11
- Implied
- ±9.4%
- Realised
- -13.7%
- Ratio
- 1.46x
CAH FQ4 2026Scored
2026-08-11 before open · reaction 2026-08-11
- Implied
- ±6.2%
- Realised
- +1.3%
- Ratio
- 0.21x
RUM Q2 2026Scored
2026-08-10 after close · reaction 2026-08-11
- Implied
- ±12.1%
- Realised
- +11.4%
- Ratio
- 0.94x
MNDY Q2 2026Scored
2026-08-10 before open · reaction 2026-08-10
- Implied
- ±23.4%
- Realised
- -4.8%
- Ratio
- 0.21x
B Q2 2026Scored
2026-08-10 before open · reaction 2026-08-10
- Implied
- ±5.9%
- Realised
- -6.4%
- Ratio
- 1.09x
VST Q2 2026Scored
2026-08-07 before open · reaction 2026-08-07
- Implied
- ±6.4%
- Realised
- -0.6%
- Ratio
- 0.09x
TTWO FQ1 2027Scored
2026-08-07 before open · reaction 2026-08-07
- Implied
- ±7.7%
- Realised
- +6.0%
- Ratio
- 0.78x
OKLO Q2 2026Scored
2026-08-07 before open · reaction 2026-08-07
- Implied
- ±13.0%
- Realised
- +14.8%
- Ratio
- 1.14x
TTD Q2 2026Scored
2026-08-06 after close · reaction 2026-08-07
- Implied
- ±13.0%
- Realised
- -21.9%
- Ratio
- 1.68x
DKNG Q2 2026Scored
2026-08-06 after close · reaction 2026-08-07
- Implied
- 8.7-9.5%
- Realised
- +8.4%
- Ratio
- 0.92x
DDOG Q2 2026Scored
2026-08-06 before open · reaction 2026-08-06
- Implied
- ±13.0%
- Realised
- -19.0%
- Ratio
- 1.46x
UBER Q2 2026Scored
2026-08-05 before open · reaction 2026-08-05
- Implied
- 7-8%
- Realised
- -5.3%
- Ratio
- 0.71x
SNDK FQ4 2026Scored
2026-08-05 after close · reaction 2026-08-06
- Implied
- 17.5-25%
- Realised
- -6.8%
- Ratio
- 0.32x
SHOP Q2 2026Scored
2026-08-05 before open · reaction 2026-08-05
- Implied
- ±12.5%
- Realised
- +17.0%
- Ratio
- 1.36x
LLY Q2 2026Scored
2026-08-05 before open · reaction 2026-08-05
- Implied
- 6.9-7.4%
- Realised
- +4.9%
- Ratio
- 0.68x
DIS FQ3 2026Scored
2026-08-05 before open · reaction 2026-08-05
- Implied
- ±6.0%
- Realised
- +3.6%
- Ratio
- 0.61x
APP Q2 2026Scored
2026-08-05 after close · reaction 2026-08-06
- Implied
- 12-13%
- Realised
- -19.7%
- Ratio
- 1.57x
SPCX Q2 2026Scored
2026-08-04 after close · reaction 2026-08-05
- Implied
- ±12.5%
- Realised
- -13.6%
- Ratio
- 1.09x
AMD Q2 2026Scored
2026-08-04 after close · reaction 2026-08-05
- Implied
- ±12.3%
- Realised
- -7.0%
- Ratio
- 0.57x
PLTR Q2 2026Scored
2026-08-03 after close · reaction 2026-08-04
- Implied
- 10-15%
- Realised
- +29.5%
- Ratio
- 2.36x
AAPL FQ3 2026Scored
2026-07-30 after close · reaction 2026-07-31
- Implied
- ±4.0%
- Realised
- -7.3%
- Ratio
- 1.82x
SKHY Q2 2026Scored
2026-07-29 before open · reaction 2026-07-29
- Implied
- ±10.0%
- Realised
- -9.6%
- Ratio
- 0.96x
MSFT FQ4 2026Scored
2026-07-29 after close · reaction 2026-07-30
- Implied
- ±4.0%
- Realised
- +15.0%
- Ratio
- 3.75x
META Q2 2026Scored
2026-07-29 after close · reaction 2026-07-30
- Implied
- ±7.0%
- Realised
- -8.6%
- Ratio
- 1.23x
INTC Q2 2026Unresolved
2026-07-23 after close · reaction 2026-07-24
- Implied
- ±8.0%
- Realised
- n/a
- Ratio
- n/a
TSLA Q2 2026Unresolved
2026-07-22 after close · reaction 2026-07-23
- Implied
- ±11.0%
- Realised
- n/a
- Ratio
- n/a
NOW Q2 2026Unresolved
2026-07-22 after close · reaction 2026-07-23
- Implied
- ±8.0%
- Realised
- n/a
- Ratio
- n/a
GOOGL Q2 2026Unresolved
2026-07-22 after close · reaction 2026-07-23
- Implied
- ±5.0%
- Realised
- n/a
- Ratio
- n/a
SOFI Q2 2026Unresolved
2026-07-21 after close · reaction 2026-07-22
- Implied
- ±9.0%
- Realised
- n/a
- Ratio
- n/a
NVDA FQ1 2027Scored
2026-05-20 after close · reaction 2026-05-21
- Implied
- ±6.5%
- Realised
- -1.8%
- Ratio
- 0.27x
NVDA FQ4 2026Scored
2026-02-25 after close · reaction 2026-02-26
- Implied
- ±5.6%
- Realised
- -5.5%
- Ratio
- 0.98x
NVDA FQ3 2026Scored
2025-11-19 after close · reaction 2025-11-20
- Implied
- ±7.7%
- Realised
- -3.1%
- Ratio
- 0.41x
Ratio is the realised move divided by the implied move, so above 1.00x the print moved further than the options priced and whoever bought the straddle was right to. Rows marked “context” are real but measured on a looser basis (a foreign listing, a weekly straddle covering more than the print, or a low-confidence quote) and stay out of the strict subset.
Guided vs Printed
The second expectation. Before each quarter, management publishes a range it expects to land in; afterwards the company prints a figure. This is that comparison, one row per guided metric rather than per quarter, because a company that hits revenue and misses margin is two facts and averaging them hides the interesting one.
Cleared their guide
93%
27 of 29 scored metrics landed inside or above
Above the top
72%
21 beat the top of the range management published
Missed their own number
2
out of 29 scored metrics
Outstanding guides
17
15 companies tracked, 14 quarters scored
Read this one carefully. Companies set guidance to be beaten, so a high clear rate is the expected result and not a compliment. The rows worth your attention are the two tails: the metrics that came in above the top of the range, which measures how much sandbagging is in the guide, and the ones that came in below, which is a company missing a number it wrote itself.
The number this scorecard exists to surface: 8 of the scored metrics had a consensus estimate sitting above the top of the company’s own range before the print. When that happens, “beat expectations” and “beat guidance” are two different bars and the headlines almost always report only one.
A caveat about the strict subset, stated because it cuts against us. Every metric that came in below its range is currently excluded from the strict subset, on sourcing and confidence grounds that have nothing to do with the companies. The strict number would therefore read 100% cleared, on 26 metrics, which is flattering for a reason that has nothing to do with the companies. The wider number is the one to quote.
Scored
| Ticker | Quarter | Metric | Guided | Printed | Street | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU | FQ4 2026 | Revenue | $49bn to $51bn | $54.23bn | $51.07bnabove guide | Above |
| MU | FQ4 2026 | Adjusted EPS | $30.00 to $32.00 | $33.42 | $31.82 | Above |
| MU | FQ4 2026 | Adjusted gross margin | 86% | 87% | · | Above |
| AMAT | FQ3 2026 | Revenue | $8.45bn to $9.45bn | $9.115bn | $8.95bn | Inside |
| AMAT | FQ3 2026 | Adjusted EPS | $3.16 to $3.56 | $3.50 | $3.36 | Inside |
| COHR | FQ4 2026 | Revenue | $1.91bn to $2.05bn | $2.046bn | · | Inside |
| COHR | FQ4 2026 | Non-GAAP EPS | $1.52 to $1.72 | $1.74 | $1.65 | Above |
| CRWV | Q2 2026 | Revenue | $2.45bn to $2.6bn | $2.575bn | $2.56bn | Inside |
| ABNB | Q2 2026 | Revenue | $3.54bn to $3.6bn | $3.608bn | $3.58bn | Above |
| APP | Q2 2026 | Revenue | $1.915bn to $1.945bn | $1.92bn | · | Insidecontext |
| APP | Q2 2026 | Adjusted EBITDA | $1.615bn to $1.645bn | $1.61bn | · | Belowcontext |
| SNDK | FQ4 2026 | Revenue | $7.75bn to $8.25bn | $8.965bn | · | Above |
| SNDK | FQ4 2026 | Non-GAAP EPS | $30.00 to $33.00 | $39.25 | · | Above |
| AMD | Q2 2026 | Revenue | $10.9bn to $11.5bn | $11.54bn | $11.28bn | Above |
| AMD | Q2 2026 | Gross margin | 56% | 54% | · | Belowcontext |
| PLTR | Q2 2026 | Revenue | $1.797bn to $1.801bn | $1.935bn | $1.81bnabove guide | Above |
| AAPL | FQ3 2026 | Revenue growth | 14% to 17% | 16.4% | · | Inside |
| MU | FQ3 2026 | Revenue | $32.75bn to $34.25bn | $41.46bn | $35.84bnabove guide | Above |
| MU | FQ3 2026 | Adjusted EPS | $18.75 to $19.55 | $25.11 | $20.69above guide | Above |
| MU | FQ3 2026 | Adjusted gross margin | 81% | 84.9% | · | Above |
| MU | FQ2 2026 | Revenue | $18.3bn to $19.1bn | $23.86bn | $20.07bnabove guide | Above |
| MU | FQ2 2026 | Adjusted EPS | $8.22 to $8.62 | $12.20 | $9.16above guide | Above |
| MU | FQ2 2026 | Adjusted gross margin | 67% to 69% | 74.9% | · | Above |
| MU | FQ1 2026 | Revenue | $12.2bn to $12.8bn | $13.64bn | $12.84bnabove guide | Above |
| MU | FQ1 2026 | Adjusted EPS | $3.60 to $3.90 | $4.78 | $3.96above guide | Above |
| MU | FQ1 2026 | Adjusted gross margin | 50.5% to 52.5% | 56.8% | · | Above |
| MU | FQ4 2025 | Revenue | $11.1bn to $11.3bn | $11.31bn | $11.22bn | Above |
| MU | FQ4 2025 | Adjusted EPS | $2.78 to $2.92 | $3.03 | $2.86 | Above |
| MU | FQ4 2025 | Adjusted gross margin | 44% to 45% | 45.7% | · | Above |
Outstanding
Ranges management has already published for quarters that have not printed yet. Logged now, scored later, for the same reason the implied moves are: a scorecard that only ever adds rows after the fact gets to choose which promises it remembers.
| Ticker | Quarter | Metric | Guided | Street | Reports |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | FQ4 2026 | Revenue growth | 9% to 11% | 12%above guide | not scheduled |
| AMD | Q3 2026 | Revenue | $12.7bn to $13.3bn | $12.5bn | not scheduled |
| AMZN | Q3 2026 | Net sales | $197bn to $202bn | · | not scheduled |
| APP | Q3 2026 | Revenue | $2.055bn to $2.085bn | $2.068bn | not scheduled |
| APP | Q3 2026 | Adjusted EBITDA | $1.71bn to $1.74bn | · | not scheduled |
| ARM | FQ2 2027 | Revenue | $1.33bn to $1.43bn | · | not scheduled |
| ARM | FQ2 2027 | Adjusted EPS | $0.43 to $0.51 | · | not scheduled |
| CLS | Q3 2026 | Revenue | $5.25bn to $5.55bn | · | not scheduled |
| CLS | Q3 2026 | Adjusted EPS | $2.88 to $3.08 | · | not scheduled |
| COHR | FQ1 2027 | Revenue | $2.2bn to $2.4bn | · | not scheduled |
| COHR | FQ1 2027 | Non-GAAP EPS | $1.85 to $2.05 | · | not scheduled |
| MSFT | FQ1 2027 | Azure growth, constant currency | 45% | 41.4% | not scheduled |
| MU | FQ1 2027 | Revenue | $60bn to $63bn | $57.02bn | not scheduled |
| MU | FQ1 2027 | Adjusted EPS | $37.15 to $39.15 | $35.40 | not scheduled |
| MU | FQ1 2027 | Adjusted gross margin | 86.25% | · | not scheduled |
| RBLX | Q3 2026 | Bookings | $1.58bn to $1.65bn | · | not scheduled |
| SNDK | FQ1 2027 | Revenue | $10.3bn to $10.8bn | $11.16bnabove guide | not scheduled |
By Ticker
The rolling ratio lives on these pages: once a name has more than one scored print, its own history is a better guide to whether its straddle is cheap than any market-wide average.
NVDA 0.69xAAP 1.72xAAPL 1.82xAMD 0.57xAPP 1.57xB 1.09xBABA 0.22xBIDU 2.19xBILL 0.05xBIRK 0.93xCAH 0.21xCOHR 0.54xCOTY 0.56xDDOG 1.46xDIS 0.61xDKNG 0.92xEAT 1.27xETOR 1.46xFN 1.61xJD 1.24xKEYS 0.67xLLY 0.68xLZB 1.65xMETA 1.23xMNDY 0.21xMRCY 0.22xMSFT 3.75xMU 0.40xNTNX 0.46xNU 1.20xOKLO 1.14xPLTR 2.36xRUM 0.94xSHOP 1.36xSKHY 0.96xSMCI 1.06xSNDK 0.32xSPCX 1.09xTGT 0.64xTJX 0.96xTTD 1.68xTTWO 0.78xUBER 0.71xVST 0.09xABNBAMATAMZNARMCLSCRWVGOOGLINTCNOWRBLXSOFITMETSLA
Use This Data
Licensed CC BY 4.0: copy it, chart it, build on it, including commercially. The only ask is attribution with a link. Suggested citation:
Earnings Expectations Database, Regards of Wallstreet, retrieved 2026-10-09, https://www.regardsofwallstreet.com/data/earnings-moves
Have a verified implied move or close-to-close pair for a row marked unresolved? The contact form reaches us, and corrections are published as revisions rather than silent edits.
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