Tools · Free Dataset · CC BY 4.0 · Updated 2026-08-05

The Earnings Expectations Database

Two expectations get set before every earnings print, by two different parties, and both are checkable afterwards. The options market prices a move; the stock delivers one. Management guides a range; the company prints a number. One row per ticker per quarter holds both, with the session and the source named on every figure, and rows we could not verify stay visible as unresolved rather than quietly disappearing. Methodology and citation.

Download JSONMoves CSVGuidance CSVMethodologyEarnings calendar

Realised beat implied

80%

4 of 5 scored prints moved further than the options priced

Median ratio

1.82x

realised divided by implied, across every scored print

Median surprise

+3.3%

percentage points of move the straddle did not charge for

Awaiting a close

15

5 unresolved · 32 tickers tracked

What This Database Says So Far

The short answer: in this sample, the straddle has been too cheap, not too expensive. Across 5 scored prints the realised move beat the implied move 4 of 5 times, with a median ratio of 1.82x. The strict subset, which drops rows measured on a looser basis, holds 4 of those and lands at 2.09x.

That is the opposite of the textbook, which says option sellers collect a volatility risk premium on average. It is also a very small sample from a single reporting season, in a market repricing AI capital spending week by week. Both of those things are true at once, and the honest reading is that this is one season of evidence, not a law. The point of keeping the series is to find out which it becomes.

Sample caveats in full on the methodology page, including why most tickers still have a single row and what that does to the rolling ratio.

Priced Against Delivered

Each scored print twice: the hollow bar is what the options charged, the solid bar is what the stock did. Wherever the solid bar runs past the hollow one, buying the move was the right side of the trade.

MSFT FQ4 20263.75x
Implied
4.0%
Realised
+15.0%
PLTR Q2 20262.36x
Implied
12.5%
Realised
+29.5%
AAPL FQ3 20261.82x
Implied
4.0%
Realised
-7.3%
META Q2 20261.23x
Implied
7.0%
Realised
-8.6%
SKHY Q2 20260.96x
Implied
10.0%
Realised
-9.6%

Implied vs Realised

25 of 25 prints

SMCI FQ4 2026Awaiting

2026-08-11 after close · reaction 2026-08-12

Implied
±18.0%
Realised
n/a
Ratio
n/a

SMCI history · our take

VST Q2 2026Awaiting

2026-08-07 before open · reaction 2026-08-07

Implied
±6.4%
Realised
n/a
Ratio
n/a

VST history · our take

TTWO FQ1 2027Awaiting

2026-08-07 before open · reaction 2026-08-07

Implied
±7.7%
Realised
n/a
Ratio
n/a

TTWO history · our take

OKLO Q2 2026Awaiting

2026-08-07 before open · reaction 2026-08-07

Implied
±13.0%
Realised
n/a
Ratio
n/a

OKLO history · our take

TTD Q2 2026Awaiting

2026-08-06 after close · reaction 2026-08-07

Implied
±13.0%
Realised
n/a
Ratio
n/a

TTD history · our take

DKNG Q2 2026Awaiting

2026-08-06 after close · reaction 2026-08-07

Implied
8.7-9.5%
Realised
n/a
Ratio
n/a

DKNG history · our take

DDOG Q2 2026Awaiting

2026-08-06 before open · reaction 2026-08-06

Implied
±13.0%
Realised
n/a
Ratio
n/a

DDOG history · our take

UBER Q2 2026Awaiting

2026-08-05 before open · reaction 2026-08-05

Implied
7-8%
Realised
n/a
Ratio
n/a

UBER history · our take

SNDK FQ4 2026Awaiting

2026-08-05 after close · reaction 2026-08-06

Implied
17.5-25%
Realised
n/a
Ratio
n/a

SNDK history · our take

SHOP Q2 2026Awaiting

2026-08-05 before open · reaction 2026-08-05

Implied
±12.5%
Realised
n/a
Ratio
n/a

SHOP history · our take

LLY Q2 2026Awaiting

2026-08-05 before open · reaction 2026-08-05

Implied
6.9-7.4%
Realised
n/a
Ratio
n/a

LLY history · our take

DIS FQ3 2026Awaiting

2026-08-05 before open · reaction 2026-08-05

Implied
±6.0%
Realised
n/a
Ratio
n/a

DIS history · our take

APP Q2 2026Awaiting

2026-08-05 after close · reaction 2026-08-06

Implied
12-13%
Realised
n/a
Ratio
n/a

APP history · our take

SPCX Q2 2026Awaiting

2026-08-04 after close · reaction 2026-08-05

Implied
±12.5%
Realised
n/a
Ratio
n/a

SPCX history · our take

AMD Q2 2026Awaiting

2026-08-04 after close · reaction 2026-08-05

Implied
±12.3%
Realised
n/a
Ratio
n/a

AMD history · our take

PLTR Q2 2026Scored

2026-08-03 after close · reaction 2026-08-04

Implied
10-15%
Realised
+29.5%
Ratio
2.36x

PLTR history · our take

AAPL FQ3 2026Scored

2026-07-30 after close · reaction 2026-07-31

Implied
±4.0%
Realised
-7.3%
Ratio
1.82x

AAPL history · our take

SKHY Q2 2026Scored

2026-07-29 before open · reaction 2026-07-29

Implied
±10.0%
Realised
-9.6%
Ratio
0.96x

SKHY history · our take

MSFT FQ4 2026Scored

2026-07-29 after close · reaction 2026-07-30

Implied
±4.0%
Realised
+15.0%
Ratio
3.75x

MSFT history · our take

META Q2 2026Scored

2026-07-29 after close · reaction 2026-07-30

Implied
±7.0%
Realised
-8.6%
Ratio
1.23x

META history · our take

INTC Q2 2026Unresolved

2026-07-23 after close · reaction 2026-07-24

Implied
±8.0%
Realised
n/a
Ratio
n/a

INTC history · our take

TSLA Q2 2026Unresolved

2026-07-22 after close · reaction 2026-07-23

Implied
±11.0%
Realised
n/a
Ratio
n/a

TSLA history · our take

NOW Q2 2026Unresolved

2026-07-22 after close · reaction 2026-07-23

Implied
±8.0%
Realised
n/a
Ratio
n/a

NOW history · our take

GOOGL Q2 2026Unresolved

2026-07-22 after close · reaction 2026-07-23

Implied
±5.0%
Realised
n/a
Ratio
n/a

GOOGL history · our take

SOFI Q2 2026Unresolved

2026-07-21 after close · reaction 2026-07-22

Implied
±9.0%
Realised
n/a
Ratio
n/a

SOFI history · our take

Ratio is the realised move divided by the implied move, so above 1.00x the print moved further than the options priced and whoever bought the straddle was right to. Rows marked “context” are real but measured on a looser basis (a foreign listing, a weekly straddle covering more than the print, or a low-confidence quote) and stay out of the strict subset.

Guided vs Printed

The second expectation. Before each quarter, management publishes a range it expects to land in; afterwards the company prints a figure. This is that comparison, one row per guided metric rather than per quarter, because a company that hits revenue and misses margin is two facts and averaging them hides the interesting one.

Cleared their guide

75%

6 of 8 scored metrics landed inside or above

Above the top

50%

4 beat the top of the range management published

Missed their own number

2

out of 8 scored metrics

Outstanding guides

16

13 companies tracked, 5 quarters scored

Read this one carefully. Companies set guidance to be beaten, so a high clear rate is the expected result and not a compliment. The rows worth your attention are the two tails: the metrics that came in above the top of the range, which measures how much sandbagging is in the guide, and the ones that came in below, which is a company missing a number it wrote itself.

The number this scorecard exists to surface: 1 of the scored metrics had a consensus estimate sitting above the top of the company’s own range before the print. When that happens, “beat expectations” and “beat guidance” are two different bars and the headlines almost always report only one.

A caveat about the strict subset, stated because it cuts against us. Every metric that came in below its range is currently excluded from the strict subset, on sourcing and confidence grounds that have nothing to do with the companies. The strict number would therefore read 100% cleared, on 5 metrics, which is flattering for a reason that has nothing to do with the companies. The wider number is the one to quote.

Scored

Guided range against the printed figure, by company and metric
TickerQuarterMetricGuidedPrintedStreetVerdict
APPQ2 2026Revenue$1.915bn to $1.945bn$1.92bn·Insidecontext
APPQ2 2026Adjusted EBITDA$1.615bn to $1.645bn$1.61bn·Belowcontext
SNDKFQ4 2026Revenue$7.75bn to $8.25bn$8.965bn·Above
SNDKFQ4 2026Non-GAAP EPS$30.00 to $33.00$39.25·Above
AMDQ2 2026Revenue$10.9bn to $11.5bn$11.54bn$11.28bnAbove
AMDQ2 2026Gross margin56%54%·Belowcontext
PLTRQ2 2026Revenue$1.797bn to $1.801bn$1.935bn$1.81bnabove guideAbove
AAPLFQ3 2026Revenue growth14% to 17%16.4%·Inside

Outstanding

Ranges management has already published for quarters that have not printed yet. Logged now, scored later, for the same reason the implied moves are: a scorecard that only ever adds rows after the fact gets to choose which promises it remembers.

Guidance published for quarters not yet reported
TickerQuarterMetricGuidedStreetReports
AMATFQ3 2026Revenue$8.45bn to $9.45bn$8.95bn2026-08-13
AMATFQ3 2026Adjusted EPS$3.16 to $3.56$3.362026-08-13
CRWVQ2 2026Revenue$2.45bn to $2.6bn$2.56bn2026-08-11
ABNBQ2 2026Revenue$3.54bn to $3.6bn$3.58bn2026-08-06
AAPLFQ4 2026Revenue growth9% to 11%12%above guidenot scheduled
AMDQ3 2026Revenue$12.7bn to $13.3bn$12.5bnnot scheduled
AMZNQ3 2026Net sales$197bn to $202bn·not scheduled
APPQ3 2026Revenue$2.055bn to $2.085bn$2.068bnnot scheduled
APPQ3 2026Adjusted EBITDA$1.71bn to $1.74bn·not scheduled
ARMFQ2 2027Revenue$1.33bn to $1.43bn·not scheduled
ARMFQ2 2027Adjusted EPS$0.43 to $0.51·not scheduled
CLSQ3 2026Revenue$5.25bn to $5.55bn·not scheduled
CLSQ3 2026Adjusted EPS$2.88 to $3.08·not scheduled
MSFTFQ1 2027Azure growth, constant currency45%41.4%not scheduled
RBLXQ3 2026Bookings$1.58bn to $1.65bn·not scheduled
SNDKFQ1 2027Revenue$10.3bn to $10.8bn$11.16bnabove guidenot scheduled

By Ticker

The rolling ratio lives on these pages: once a name has more than one scored print, its own history is a better guide to whether its straddle is cheap than any market-wide average.

AAPL 1.82xMETA 1.23xMSFT 3.75xPLTR 2.36xSKHY 0.96xABNBAMATAMDAMZNAPPARMCLSCRWVDDOGDISDKNGGOOGLINTCLLYNOWOKLORBLXSHOPSMCISNDKSOFISPCXTSLATTDTTWOUBERVST

Use This Data

Licensed CC BY 4.0: copy it, chart it, build on it, including commercially. The only ask is attribution with a link. Suggested citation:

Earnings Expectations Database, Regards of Wallstreet, retrieved 2026-08-06, https://www.regardsofwallstreet.com/data/earnings-moves

Have a verified implied move or close-to-close pair for a row marked unresolved? The contact form reaches us, and corrections are published as revisions rather than silent edits.

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