IPO Lock-Up Calendar

Percentage of What?

This is the whole reason the tool exists. A headline that says 911.5 million shares unlock, worth $116 billion is frightening and unusable, because it is a numerator with no denominator. Against SpaceX's 555.6 million share float that tranche is +164%, more than doubling the tradeable stock in a day. Against 13.1 billion shares outstanding it is 7%. Both are true and they support opposite conclusions, so every row above gives you the base.

Releases With No Date Yet

These are real releases waiting on an event, usually an earnings report whose date has not been announced. They are kept out of the dated calendar rather than given a guessed date.

• CBRS: Early release around the Q2 2026 report

  Reported to fall around the Q2 2026 report, which is confirmed for August 12, 2026 after the close. The eligibility date depends on a release mechanism this calendar has not read out of the prospectus.

  Resolved: Pending, and only half-resolvable from here. The earnings date is confirmed for August 12 after the close, so the release, if the provision is as described, lands within days of it. What is not resolved is the provision itself, which has not been confirmed against the filing, and the size, which fails the arithmetic against shares outstanding. This row is a date to watch rather than a quantity anything can be built on.

  Reported at over 60 million shares. Not published as a count: it is single-sourced, and adding it to the roughly 171 million reported for the main expiry gives 231 million against roughly 192 million restricted shares, which cannot both be true.

• SPCX: Conditional early release, price trigger455.8m (+82% of float, 3.5% of shares out)

  Would have released alongside the August 6 tranche. The condition failed, so these shares roll to December 8.

  Resolved: Not met, and it was never close. The stock traded near $110 through most of the window and its best close in it was $125.33 on August 4, about 29% below the trigger, which then had to be cleared five times in ten sessions. The shares do not disappear: they roll into the December 8 release and quietly make that date larger.

• SPCX: Q3 2026 earnings-triggered release

  Two trading days after SpaceX reports Q3 2026 results. No reporting date has been announced; coverage that has modelled it puts the release in late October or November.

  Resolved: Pending, and it is a date question rather than a condition question: the release itself is not in doubt, only when it lands. SpaceX has not announced a Q3 reporting date. The August 6 tranche released on the second trading day after the August 4 report, so the same offset applied to a Q3 date is the working assumption until the company schedules it.

  Reported as about 28% of the 180-day pool, which against the derived 4.6 billion share pool is on the order of 1.3 billion shares. No count is published here because the pool size is itself backed out of the first tranche rather than read from the prospectus, so a figure that large would carry a derivation two steps deep.

• SPCX: Founder and selected insiders

  Mid-2027. No specific date has been published.

  Not disclosed as a tranche. Musk holds about 42% of the equity and more than 80% of the voting power through Class B stock, which against 13.1 billion shares outstanding is on the order of 5 billion shares, but the locked group is not itemised and that arithmetic is ours rather than the company's.

The Denominators, Issuer by Issuer

Every percentage above divides by one of these. They are published in full, with dates, so any figure on this page can be checked rather than trusted.

How This Is Built

The "Lock-Up Agreements" and "Shares Eligible for Future Sale" sections of a 424B4 or S-1 are parsed for four things: the day count and what it runs from, any earnings-triggered expiry, any early-release price trigger, and the share counts and pool percentages attached to them. That parse produces a candidate, never a published row.

A row is only published once its share count has both denominators behind it, its dollar value has a price and a date, and any condition has been resolved rather than repeated. Where a reported figure fails to reconcile against the share register, the date is published and the count is not, with the arithmetic that killed it shown on the row. Each row is graded Filing, Tier 1 or Reported so you can see how far from the prospectus a number is.

IPO Lock-Up FAQ

When is the next IPO lock-up expiry?

The next release on this calendar is SPCX on August 6, 2026: about 911.5m shares, which is +164% of a 555.6m share float and 7% of shares outstanding. A lock-up expiry makes shares eligible to trade; it does not mean they are sold.

What is an IPO lock-up?

A contractual promise by insiders, employees and pre-IPO investors not to sell their shares for a set period after the offering, usually 180 days, written into the underwriting agreement and described in the "Lock-Up Agreements" section of the 424B4 or S-1. When it expires, those shares become eligible to trade.

Why does this calendar show two percentages for every tranche?

Because a share count on its own is unusable, and the two bases can support opposite conclusions. A release of 911.5 million shares against a 555.6 million share float more than doubles the tradeable stock, which sounds catastrophic. The same 911.5 million shares against 13.1 billion shares outstanding is about 7% of the company, which sounds trivial. Both are true. Showing only one is how a reader gets misled, so every row here carries both.

Do shares always fall when a lock-up expires?

No. Eligible to trade is not the same as sold, and markets front-run a known date, so the weakness usually arrives before the expiry rather than on it. Studies of lock-up expiries find an average abnormal return of roughly -2%, and the largest single unlock in Facebook history was followed by a 12.6% rally, because clearing the overhang removed the uncertainty.

What is an early-release price trigger?

A clause that frees part of the locked stock ahead of schedule if the share price holds above a set level, typically a percentage of the IPO price, for a number of trading days inside a window. It matters because a trigger far above the current price cannot fire, and the shares it governs do not disappear: they usually roll into the next scheduled release, making that date larger.

Where do these figures come from?

The lock-up terms come from the "Lock-Up Agreements" and "Shares Eligible for Future Sale" sections of each issuer's 424B4 or S-1, linked on every issuer panel, together with the coverage cited on each row. Every row is graded by how well sourced it is, and where a reported share count fails to reconcile against the share register it is not published at all. Last updated August 6, 2026.