MSFT: Expectations vs Outcomes

Not on the calendar yet

No implied move was quoted for this print, so it is tracked on the guidance axis only.

A point guide, not a range, and set above an already elevated consensus. Guiding above the street one quarter after accelerating is not what a company with a demand problem does, and it is half the reason the stock had the session it did.

Guidance published; the print is not on the calendar yet. The row scores when the date is confirmed and the quarter is reported.

Our coverage of the print where it was issued

Reported 2026-07-29 (after close) · reaction session 2026-07-30

Implied

±4.0%

struck about a week out, 2026-07-16

Realised

+15.0%

close to close

Ratio

3.75x

+11.0% vs priced

Rolling

3.75x

after 1 scored

Sources split between 15% (CNBC, TradingKey) and 16% (Bloomberg), so the row carries 15% as the lower, safer figure and the ratio is quoted as approximate. Our own coverage published 9.5%, which was a mid-morning snapshot rather than the close: the row records the session, not the snapshot.

Our preview: "the market prices only a plus or minus 4% move"CNBC: Microsoft jumps 15%Bloomberg: 16%, biggest one-day value gain on record