Earnings move database · CC BY 4.0 · Updated 2026-11-03

MSFT: Expectations vs Outcomes

Every tracked Microsoft print on both axes: what the straddle charged going in against what the stock did coming out, and what management guided against what the company printed.

Rolling ratio

3.75x

mean of 1 scored print

Beat the straddle

100%

of 1 scored prints

Cleared its guide

100%

1 scored metric, 0 outstanding

One scored print is not a track record. A rolling ratio only starts meaning something after several quarters, and this name has 1. Read the row, not the average.

Print by Print

FQ1 2027

not_tracked

Reported 2026-10-28 (after close) · reaction session 2026-10-29

No implied move was quoted for this print, so it is tracked on the guidance axis only.

FQ1 2027 guidance against the printed figures
GuidedRangePrintedVerdict
Azure growth, constant currency45%48%Above

A point guide of 45% in constant currency, set on July 29 above a 41.4% consensus. Microsoft's October 28 release put Azure revenue growth at 48%, with no currency effect, so 48% in constant currency: three points above its own guide and about six and a half above the street. The release now reports a line called Azure revenue, where the guide was given for Azure and other cloud services; this row treats them as the same metric, and that should be checked against the 10-Q.

Microsoft reported after the close on Wednesday, October 28, so the reaction session is Thursday, October 29. The guidance block was scored from that evening's release. No implied move is on the row because no preview on this site priced one; the October 26 week-ahead quoted 6.0% from October 18 prices, which is a hub figure struck ten days early, not a preview, so the row stays not_tracked on the move axis.

Our coverage of the print where it was issuedMicrosoft fiscal Q1 2027 earnings release, constant currency reconciliationTraders Agency, reporting the same 48% from the release and CNBC

  • 2026-10-28: guidance.metrics[*].actual, Filled from Microsoft's October 28, 2026 release (Azure revenue +48%, 0% currency impact). Tier-1 coverage was not yet indexed at the time of the run; a secondary outlet citing CNBC reports the same 48%.

FQ4 2026

Scored

Reported 2026-07-29 (after close) · reaction session 2026-07-30

Implied
±4.0%
struck about a week out, 2026-07-16
Realised
+15.0%
close to close
Ratio
3.75x
+11.0% vs priced
Rolling
3.75x
after 1 scored

Sources split between 15% (CNBC, TradingKey) and 16% (Bloomberg), so the row carries 15% as the lower, safer figure and the ratio is quoted as approximate. Our own coverage published 9.5%, which was a mid-morning snapshot rather than the close: the row records the session, not the snapshot.

Our preview: "the market prices only a plus or minus 4% move"CNBC: Microsoft jumps 15%Bloomberg: 16%, biggest one-day value gain on record

MSFT rows from the Implied vs Realised Earnings Move Database, Regards of Wallstreet. Licensed CC BY 4.0. Methodology · Full database