NVDA: Expectations vs Outcomes

Reported 2026-08-26 (after close) · reaction session 2026-08-27

Implied

±5.8%

struck about a week out, 2026-08-20

Realised

+8.7%

close to close

Ratio

1.51x

+2.9% vs priced

Rolling

0.79x

after 4 scored

209.66 to 227.98

The August 28 weekly chain was sourced six days out at 5.8%, against a 4.8% twelve-quarter realised average, and the preview passed on buying the event on that arithmetic. The August 27 close settles it at 209.66 to 227.98, a rise of 8.74%, so the print cleared its implied by half again and the pass was wrong. The implied was struck six sessions ahead, so the ratio here is indicative rather than a clean prior-close read.

moomoo: August 28 weeklies priced 5.8%Our preview, trade log row 4Nasdaq historical closesKiplinger: shares jumped 8.7%

Reported 2026-05-20 (after close) · reaction session 2026-05-21

Implied

±6.5%

struck intraday, 2026-05-20

Realised

-1.8%

close to close

Ratio

0.27x

-4.7% vs priced

Rolling

0.55x

after 3 scored

223.47 to 219.51

Record revenue of $81.6bn, up 85%, an $80bn buyback, and the stock closed lower: 223.47 to 219.51 on May 21, a fall of 1.77%, against an implied near 6.5%, a ratio of 0.27x and the widest overprice in Nvidia's recent record. Two quotes for the implied and they do not agree. Susquehanna had the weekly straddle at about 6.5% on print day, which is the figure on the row because it is the one struck nearest the release; Saxo had the May 22 expiry at about 8% on May 14, when the stock closed 235.74, some 5.5% higher. The ratio is 0.27x on 6.5% and 0.22x on 8%. Neither article timestamps its quote, so the intraday session label rests on the publication date rather than a verified tick. Mid-session reads on May 21 had the stock down about 0.9%, so the close is the deeper number.

Susquehanna Financial Group: the weekly straddle priced at about 6.5%Saxo: May 22 expiry, $235 call at $9.90 plus put at $8.90 against a $235.74 spot, about 8%stockanalysis.com daily closes, S&P Global Market Intelligence dataMotley Fool via Yahoo Finance: shares fell almost 2% on Thursday

Reported 2026-02-25 (after close) · reaction session 2026-02-26

Implied

±5.6%

struck an earlier session, 2026-02-25

Realised

-5.5%

close to close

Ratio

0.98x

-0.1% vs priced

Rolling

0.69x

after 2 scored

195.56 to 184.89

The closest-to-fair print in Nvidia's recent record: ORATS had the options market at about 5.6% either way, the smallest implied move before an Nvidia report in at least three years, and the February 26 session delivered 195.56 to 184.89, a fall of 5.46%, for a ratio of 0.98x. Revenue of $68.13bn and a Q1 guide near $78bn both cleared the street and the stock fell anyway. Watch the window on this one: NVDA closed 177.19 the next day, so the two-session move is 9.39% and any source quoting that figure is measuring something this row does not.

Reuters, data from ORATS: about 5.6% either way, the smallest implied move before an Nvidia print in at least three yearsstockanalysis.com daily closes, S&P Global Market Intelligence dataCNBC: blowout earnings report disappoints Wall Street as stock sinks 5%

Reported 2025-11-19 (after close) · reaction session 2025-11-20

Implied

±7.7%

struck an earlier session, 2025-11-19

Realised

-3.1%

close to close

Ratio

0.41x

-4.5% vs priced

Rolling

0.41x

after 1 scored

186.52 to 180.64

The row that shows why this database measures the reaction session and not the release evening. Nvidia beat on revenue of $57.01bn and guided Q4 above the street, the stock rose as much as 5% on November 20, and it closed the session at 180.64 against a 186.52 prior close, a fall of 3.15%. Anyone reading the pop as the reaction got the sign wrong. Sources disagree on the implied: TipRanks' options tool published 7.69% before the open on print day and Reuters, using ORATS, had about 7% the day before, so the row carries the precise figure, sits at low confidence and stays out of the strict subset. The ratio is 0.41x on 7.69% and 0.45x on 7%, and the conclusion is the same either way.

TipRanks Options Tool: 7.69% expected either wayReuters, data from ORATS: about a 7% move either waystockanalysis.com daily closes, S&P Global Market Intelligence dataCNBC: Nvidia stock closes nearly 3% lower, wiping out post-earnings rally