Earnings move database · CC BY 4.0 · Updated 2026-08-27

SMCI: Expectations vs Outcomes

Every tracked Super Micro Computer print on both axes: what the straddle charged going in against what the stock did coming out, and what management guided against what the company printed.

Rolling ratio

1.06x

mean of 1 scored print

Beat the straddle

100%

of 1 scored prints

Cleared its guide

n/a

no guidance tracked

One scored print is not a track record. A rolling ratio only starts meaning something after several quarters, and this name has 1. Read the row, not the average.

Print by Print

FQ4 2026

Scored

Reported 2026-08-11 (after close) · reaction session 2026-08-12

Implied
±18.0%
struck an earlier session, 2026-07-31
Realised
+19.0%
close to close
Ratio
1.06x
+1.0% vs priced
Rolling
1.06x
after 1 scored

31.6 to 37.61

Headline revenue and EPS were preannounced, so the straddle is priced almost entirely on the margin disclosure. Resolved on the August 12 close: 31.60 to 37.61, a rise of 19.02% against an 18% implied, so the margin line alone was worth slightly more than the whole print was priced at. The stock rose through the day, which is why the published reads climb from about 8% pre-market to 13.35% at midday, and none of them is the close.

Our preview, trade logNasdaq historical closesMotley Fool: SMCI up 13.35% at 11:11am ET on August 12

Our Coverage

SMCI rows from the Implied vs Realised Earnings Move Database, Regards of Wallstreet. Licensed CC BY 4.0. Methodology · Full database