Earnings move database · CC BY 4.0 · Updated 2026-08-27

SPCX: Expectations vs Outcomes

Every tracked SpaceX print on both axes: what the straddle charged going in against what the stock did coming out, and what management guided against what the company printed.

Rolling ratio

1.09x

mean of 1 scored print

Beat the straddle

100%

of 1 scored prints

Cleared its guide

n/a

no guidance tracked

One scored print is not a track record. A rolling ratio only starts meaning something after several quarters, and this name has 1. Read the row, not the average.

Print by Print

Q2 2026

Scored

Reported 2026-08-04 (after close) · reaction session 2026-08-05

Implied
±12.5%
struck about a week out, 2026-07-31
Realised
-13.6%
close to close
Ratio
1.09x
+1.1% vs priced
Rolling
1.09x
after 1 scored

125.33 to 108.27

The weekly straddle priced two events at once, the first earnings report in the company history and the August 6 unlock of 911.5 million shares, so it is not a clean earnings implied and never enters the headline figures. The stock also rose 9.4% into the print on August 4, before anyone saw the number. Resolved on the August 5 close: 125.33 to 108.27, a fall of 13.61% and an all-time closing low, with the unlock still a day ahead of it.

Our preview, trade logNasdaq historical closesYahoo Finance: SpaceX stock down for the week after the unlock

Our Coverage

SPCX rows from the Implied vs Realised Earnings Move Database, Regards of Wallstreet. Licensed CC BY 4.0. Methodology · Full database