AMD: Expectations vs Outcomes

Not on the calendar yet

No implied move was quoted for this print, so it is tracked on the guidance axis only.

Guided to about $17 billion plus or minus 3%, stored as the $16.49 billion to $17.51 billion endpoints, against a consensus of about $16.23 billion going in: the bottom of the range sits above the street. Gross margin was guided to about 55% as a point, so a print of 55% is inside and anything else is above or below.

Guidance published at the third-quarter print; AMD has not yet confirmed a date for this quarter. The row gains its date, and then any implied move a preview prices, as they are confirmed.

AMD third-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1Yahoo Finance: $17B Q4 revenue guideOur November 3 UPDATE on the week-ahead hub

Reported 2026-11-03 (after close) · reaction session 2026-11-04

No implied move was quoted for this print, so it is tracked on the guidance axis only.

Guided to $13bn plus or minus $300m against a roughly $12.5bn consensus: management set the bar above the street, which is the opposite of the Palantir shape.

AMD reported after the close on Tuesday, November 3: revenue of $13,377 million, up 16% from $11,536 million in the second quarter and 45% from $9,246 million a year earlier, above the top of its $12.7 billion to $13.3 billion guide. The consensus on this row is the roughly $12.5 billion recorded in August; by the print it had risen to about $13.06 billion to $13.09 billion. The row carries no implied move: the site published no preview that priced one before the release, and the third-party quotes ranged from 7.7% to 10.9%. The reaction session was Wednesday, November 4.

Our coverage of the print where it was issuedAMD third-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1CNBC: revenue $13.38 billion against $13.09 billion expectedOur November 3 UPDATE on the week-ahead hub

Reported 2026-08-04 (after close) · reaction session 2026-08-05

Implied

±12.3%

struck an earlier session, 2026-08-03

Realised

-7.0%

close to close

Ratio

0.57x

-5.3% vs priced

Rolling

0.57x

after 1 scored

The row that explains the reaction. AMD cleared the top of its own revenue range and still fell, because the margin line came in under the roughly 56% guided. Whether the reported 54% is on the same basis as the guide was not clear at the time, so that metric carries low confidence and stays out of the strict scorecard.

518.58 to 482.05

Resolved on the August 5 close: 518.58 to 482.05, a fall of 7.04% over the reaction session. The extended-hours reaction on the night ran 9 to 10% and one morning read was published as 5%, so both are snapshots rather than the session. The 7.04% close sits inside the 12.3% implied, which makes the straddle pass in the preview a win.

Our preview, trade logNasdaq historical closesTIKR: AMD stock fell 7% todayAMD earnings releaseBenzingaTradingKey