Stock Market Week Ahead (Nov 2-6): Apple and Palantir Monday, Midterms Tuesday, AMD, Then the October Jobs Report

TL;DR

• The October jobs report lands Friday, November 6 at 8:30am ET. It is the last employment figure before the Fed decides on December 9. Forecasts run from about 50,000 to 80,000 jobs added, against 29,000 in September.
• Last week ended with a sharp fall in technology shares. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,580.07, down 1.82%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.86%. The 10-year Treasury yield ended near 4.93%.
• Apple and Palantir both report Monday after the close. Apple's call is at 5:00pm ET, the first with John Ternus as chief executive.
• The midterm elections are Tuesday, November 3. AMD reports after the close the same day.
• Qualcomm and Arm report Wednesday, Airbnb on Thursday, and Charter before the open on Friday.

The Board

Apple and Palantir report Monday, the midterms are Tuesday, AMD reports Tuesday and Qualcomm Wednesday, and the jobs report lands Friday.

What Time Is the October Jobs Report?

8:30am ET on Friday, November 6. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes it, per its own November release schedule. The report gives the number of jobs added in October and the unemployment rate.

Forecasts for payrollsPayrolls (nonfarm payrolls) is the headline number of the monthly jobs report: the net count of jobs US employers added or cut. It excludes farm work, which swings with the seasons rather than the economy. are unusually spread out. Barclays and Continuum Economics both expect about 50,000 jobs added. Other published ranges run to 80,000. September came in at 29,000, with unemployment at 4.2%. Forecasters are split on whether the rate holds at 4.2% or falls to 4.1%.

Why Friday's Report Decides the December Fed Meeting

The Fed held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28. The vote was 10-2, and both dissenters wanted a quarter-point rise. The next decision is December 9, and it comes with a fresh set of rate forecasts from officials.

Interest rate futures put the chance that the Fed raises its target range on December 9 at roughly 70% to 77%. The figure depends on which calculation you read. Those odds fell during Friday's selling. Nothing between now and December 9 carries more weight for that decision than Friday's employment figure, because October inflation does not arrive until November 10.

Weak hiring would make a December rise harder to justify, and strong hiring would make it easier. The Fed hub tracks the vote and the odds, and September's jobs preview explains how the report is put together.

Last Week: The Nasdaq Fell 2.86% on Friday and 5.2% in October

All three main indexes fell on Friday. The S&P 500 lost 140.32 points, or 1.82%, to 7,580.07. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 572.25 points, or 1.09%, to 51,770.31. The Nasdaq Composite fell 747.73 points, or 2.86%, to 25,437.00, per Yahoo Finance.

All of those figures are closing prices from the normal trading day, not from after-hours trading. Investors sold technology and artificial-intelligence shares after Amazon and Intel both gave weak forecasts for the current quarter. Over October as a whole the Nasdaq fell 5.2% and the S&P 500 1.2%, while the Dow rose 1.5%. The 10-year Treasury yield ended near 4.93%, down from 5.00% a week earlier. The sector heatmap shows which groups are carrying the index, and last week's edition has the Fed decision and the GDP and inflation figures.

Monday, November 2: ISM Manufacturing at 10:00am, Then Apple and Palantir

The ISMISM (Institute for Supply Management) surveys US businesses each month to track changes in demand, hiring, prices and overall business conditions. manufacturing survey for October arrives at 10:00am ET. It measures factory activity.

Apple reports after the close, with its call at 5:00pm ET. Apple guided to revenue growth of 9% to 11% against the same quarter last year, when it made $102.5 billion. That implies about $112 billion to $114 billion. Analysts expect about $113.4 billion and $1.98 a share, the average of 27 estimates. The guide also put gross margin at 47% to 48%, down from 50.1% the quarter before.

This is the first results call with John Ternus as chief executive. Tim Cook became executive chair on September 1. Apple's last quarter under Cook covers what changed.

Palantir also reports after the close. Analysts expect about $2.18 billion in revenue and $0.41 a share, the average of 24 estimates, per the earnings calendar. The August preview covers how it guides.

Tuesday, November 3: Midterm Elections, and AMD After the Close

The midterm elections are held on Tuesday. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are on the ballot, along with about a third of the Senate. Results arrive through Tuesday evening and Wednesday, and close races can take days to call.

Apollo Global, Pfizer and Shopify report before the open.

AMD reports after the close, with its call at 5:00pm ET, per the company. Analysts expect about $13.1 billion in revenue, against $11.5 billion in the quarter before. The figure the market cares about is data centre revenue, which more than doubled from a year earlier last quarter. After Amazon's and Intel's forecasts last week, investors are asking whether heavy AI spending is paying off, and AMD is the first big chip company to answer. The August AMD preview sets out the segments, and the decision piece has the valuation argument.

Arista Networks, AIG and Block also report after the close.

Wednesday, November 4: The Treasury's Quarterly Borrowing Plan, ISM Services, Then Qualcomm and Arm

The Treasury publishes its quarterly refunding plan at 8:30am ET, setting how much it will borrow and at which maturities. Bond investors read it closely, and the 10-year yield can move on it. The ISM services survey follows at 10:00am.

Uber, CVS Health and Datadog report before the open.

Qualcomm reports after the close, with its call at 4:45pm ET, per its investor site. Arm Holdings, Snap, Edwards Lifesciences, McKesson and Albemarle follow the same afternoon.

Thursday, November 5: A Quiet Day, With Airbnb After the Close

Thursday has no major US economic release beyond weekly jobless claims at 8:30am ET. Airbnb reports after the close, the only large name of the day. Its August preview covers how bookings are reported.

Friday, November 6: The October Jobs Report at 8:30am

The employment report at 8:30am ET is the week's main event. Charter Communications reports before the open.

Beyond the headline count, the report also revises the job totals already published for earlier months. September's report cut 60,000 jobs from previous months, which made a weak figure weaker. The unemployment rate matters too. It has drifted up through the year, and a rising rate is the strongest argument against a December rise.

The One-Line Read

Friday's jobs report matters more this week than any set of company results. It is the last employment reading before the Fed decides on December 9.