Earnings move database · CC BY 4.0 · Updated 2026-08-27

TGT: Expectations vs Outcomes

Every tracked Target print on both axes: what the straddle charged going in against what the stock did coming out, and what management guided against what the company printed.

Rolling ratio

0.64x

mean of 1 scored print

Beat the straddle

0%

of 1 scored prints

Cleared its guide

n/a

no guidance tracked

One scored print is not a track record. A rolling ratio only starts meaning something after several quarters, and this name has 1. Read the row, not the average.

Print by Print

Q2 2026

Scored

Reported 2026-08-19 (before open) · reaction session 2026-08-19

Implied
6.5-6.9%
struck intraday, 2026-08-13
Realised
+4.3%
close to close
Ratio
0.64x
-2.4% vs priced
Rolling
0.64x
after 1 scored

152.48 to 159

Quoted as a 6.5 to 6.9% band, so the row carries the midpoint and the band. The close to close move was 4.28%, inside the implied. The stock covered 10.8% peak to trough on the day, wider than the implied, which is the distinction this dataset exists to keep: a straddle held to the bell lost, a trader working the tape had the move. The implied was struck against an intraday level six days out, so the ratio is indicative.

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TGT rows from the Implied vs Realised Earnings Move Database, Regards of Wallstreet. Licensed CC BY 4.0. Methodology · Full database