October inflation on Tuesday, after the S&P 500's worst day since April 2025 | Week-Ahead Brief #11

Last week

No issue last Sunday, so this covers two weeks.
The Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28. Two of the twelve voters wanted a rise.
Main mover: Alphabet fell about 13% on October 29, its worst day since Google listed in 2004. More below.
The next day Intel fell 31% and Amazon about 6% on weak results and forecasts. The Nasdaq lost 5.2% over October.
On Thursday, November 5, the S&P 500 fell 4.4%, its biggest one-day drop since April 2025, led by chip and AI stocks.
On Friday the S&P 500 closed at 7,376.86, down 2.7% for the week. The Nasdaq closed at 24,579.42, down 3.4%.
The October jobs report showed 165,000 jobs added, about triple the forecast. Unemployment fell to 4.1%.
Brent crude fell more than 16% on the week, on hopes of an end to the Iran conflict. More below.
The question for this week: does October's inflation report give the Fed a reason not to raise rates in December?

The week, day by day

The stock market is open normal hours every day this week, including Veterans Day on Wednesday. The bond market closes that day. Calendar

Monday, Nov 9

6:00am ET: the final part of Cerebras's IPO lock-up ends, so insiders and early investors can sell all their shares. The earlier parts ended in stages since the May IPO.
Before the open: KKR and Barrick Mining earnings.
No major US data.
After the close: Take-Two earnings, ten days before Grand Theft Auto VI goes on sale. Options suggest the stock could rise or fall 9.1% on the results.
After the close: Hims & Hers earnings. Options suggest a move of about 16% either way.
After the close: Occidental Petroleum earnings. Its outlook shows how an oil producer sees prices after last week's 16% fall.
After the close: Rocket Lab earnings, expected per three earnings calendars. The company has not confirmed the date.

Tuesday, Nov 10

Before the open: On Holding earnings, the maker of On running shoes, and Sea Limited, owner of the Shopee online shop. Sea's date comes from earnings calendars and the company has not confirmed it.
8:30am ET: October CPI inflation. Forecasts put the one-month rise near 0.2% to 0.3%, down from 0.6% in September. There is no yearly figure this time (more below).
Around this date, Fervo Energy's IPO lock-up ends, freeing shares held by insiders and early investors.
After the close: CoreWeave earnings. It rents out computing power for AI, so its forecast will be read across the AI stocks that fell last week.
After the close: Petrobras earnings, Brazil's state-controlled oil company.

Wednesday, Nov 11

Veterans Day. Stocks trade normal hours and the bond market is closed.
No major US data.
After the close: Corteva earnings, the seeds and crop chemicals company.

Thursday, Nov 12

Before the open: Nebius earnings. Like CoreWeave, it rents out computing power for AI.
8:30am ET: weekly jobless claims.
After the close: Cisco earnings. Analysts expect about $18.1 billion of revenue. Options suggest the stock could rise or fall 9.1%.
After the close: Applied Materials earnings. It sells the machines that make chips, so its forecast shows how much chipmakers plan to spend next year. Options suggest a move of 10.5% either way.
After the close: Cerebras earnings, three days after its IPO lock-up ended on Monday.

Friday, Nov 13

8:30am ET: October PPI, which measures what businesses charge each other. September rose 1.3% in one month, the biggest rise in about four and a half years, mostly from energy.
No major US earnings.

Forecasts for Take-Two, Cisco, Applied Materials and other reports are on the earnings calendar. The full list of data releases is on the economic calendar, and each morning's timetable on /today.

October's inflation report has no yearly rate, and it is the last one before the Fed's December 9 decision

The government shutdown in October 2025 stopped price collection that month. With no October 2025 figure to compare against, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will not publish a yearly inflation rate this time. The one-month change is the figure to watch.

The Cleveland Fed's daily estimate puts October's one-month rise at 0.24% for all prices and 0.21% for core prices, which leave out food and fuel. TD Securities expects 0.30%. Either would be well down from September's 0.6%, which was driven by gasoline.

The Fed decides on December 9. November's CPI comes out the day after, on December 10, so Tuesday's report is the last inflation reading officials see. After Friday's jobs report, futures markets give a December rate rise about a 77% chance.

A reading below September's 0.6% would back the Fed officials who want to hold off on a December rate rise. Another reading that high would make a December rise close to certain.

Prediction: prices rise 0.3% or less in October, and the futures market's odds of a December rate rise fall but stay above 50%.

The Fed meeting calendar contains key dates and past votes.

Alphabet's worst day ever, then the S&P 500's worst day since April 2025

Alphabet's quarterly profit and search ad revenue both came in below forecasts. Its free cash flow for the quarter was minus $9.07 billion, against the $2.7 billion analysts expected, per CNBC. The shares fell about 13% and took roughly $500 billion off its market value.

Intel's fall the next day came after a weak forecast for the last three months of the year. Amazon missed forecasts and kept its plan to spend about $220 billion this year. Microsoft barely moved.

On Tuesday, November 3, the Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate, and stocks rose on Wednesday. On Thursday they fell hard, as investors worried that a Democratic Congress would slow or pause new data center building. Qualcomm's weak forecast added to it. The Nasdaq fell 5.5%, more than the S&P 500 (because it holds more tech and chip stocks).

Cisco and Applied Materials both report on Thursday. Both sell equipment that AI data centers need, so their forecasts show whether customers are still placing orders.

My read: chip stocks stay jumpy until Nvidia reports on November 17. One good forecast from Cisco or Applied Materials won't settle them.

Oil fell 16% in a week

Brent crude, the global benchmark, closed Friday at $98.32 a barrel. Two weeks ago it was above $116. US crude settled at $90.83, down nearly 13% for the week.

Traders cut the extra price they had been paying for the risk of war, after the midterm results raised hopes of talks with Iran. Attacks on tankers have not stopped, which kept oil from falling further.

October's oil prices were still high, so the fall shows up first in November's inflation figures. Those come out on December 10, a day after the Fed decides.

Scorecard: how our last predictions turned out

The October 25 issue predicted the Fed would hold with at least one vote for a rise. Right: it held, and two officials, Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack, voted to raise rates.

It also said big tech's AI spending plans would push their share prices down only slightly. Wrong on the size. Microsoft barely moved, but Alphabet had its worst day ever and Amazon fell about 6%.

Every entry and outcome is in the track record.

New on the site

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Company announcements: every 8-K (the form a company files to report a major event), described in plain words.

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Read this week

The full week-ahead piece, every figure sourced
Fed meeting calendar: every decision date and vote
IPO lock-up calendar: when early shareholders in Cerebras and Fervo can sell
Sector heatmap, showing which sectors move after CPI on Tuesday

Last thing

Next week Home Depot and Disney report on November 17, with Nvidia the same day. Target reports on November 18, then Walmart on November 19, the day Grand Theft Auto VI goes on sale.

Next Sunday's issue will cover it.

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