Tools · Free Dataset · CC BY 4.0 · Updated 2026-09-18
The Track Record
Every call this site publishes, in one graded ledger: the entry it was struck against, the implied move at the time, what actually happened, and whether the call won. Passes are scored like everything else, because "don't buy the straddle" has a P&L consequence too. This is a paper record of published calls, not executed trades, and the losses are listed with the same precision as the wins: methodology and scoring rules.
Calls on the ledger
156
117 scored, 25 open, 2 pending entry, 12 unscorable
Hit rate
62%
73 wins, 44 losses, passes scored
Expectancy
+16.8%
9 priced calls; needs 5+ to mean anything
Conviction calibration
61 calls
recorded on every call since 2026-08-14
Hit Rate Is Not Edge
Why the headline number is not enough
A 70% hit rate loses money if the winners average +5% and the losers average -20%. A 40% hit rate can compound if the wins run and the losses are cut. So this page reports expectancy alongside the hit rate: win rate times average win, minus loss rate times average loss, per unit of risk. Expectancy only exists for priced calls: a call with a stated or modelled cost. Passes carry no return by construction, so on a ledger this young the expectancy sample is tiny, and the table says "too few" rather than dressing up two data points as a statistic.
Two scores per call
Every row is graded twice. Thesis accuracy: did the predicted phenomenon happen? Call result: did the published call win, scored on the whole position? The distinction finds out where a process fails. A straddle buyer who correctly predicts realised beating implied but picks a structure that bleeds anyway has a research edge and an execution problem, and only separate scores can show it. On the seeded backlog the two coincide, because nearly every early call was a pass; they diverge as priced calls accumulate.
By Category
Directional stock calls, options-direction calls, volatility calls, event calls and macro calls have different statistical properties, so there is no blended "score" across them. The volatility bucket dominates the early ledger because the site's trade logs grew out of earnings previews.
| Category | Scored | W-L | Hit rate | Thesis accuracy | Priced calls | Expectancy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stock direction | 31 | 20-11 | 65% | 74% | 1 | too few |
| Options direction | 25 | 17-8 | 68% | 68% | 1 | too few |
| Volatility | 57 | 33-24 | 58% | 58% | 7 | +5.9% |
| Event | 4 | 3-1 | 75% | 75% | 0 | too few |
| Macro / sector | 0 | 0-0 | n/a | n/a | 0 | too few |
Conviction Calibration
| Conviction | Calls scored | Thesis correct | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3/10 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 4/10 | 11 | 9 | 82% |
| 5/10 | 15 | 11 | 73% |
| 6/10 | 18 | 11 | 61% |
| 7/10 | 13 | 9 | 69% |
| 8/10 | 2 | 1 | 50% |
Open Calls
Tracked calls with a sourced entry and a live mark. They sit outside the hit rate until they close, so unrealised gains never pad the record.
| Ticker | Structure | Entry | Latest mark | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABUS | Pass on chasing ABUS common stock ahead of the modified Dutch auction tender offer | $5.21, close, 2026-08-21 | $5.12, Sep 3 close | -1.7%September 3 2026 close per StockAnalysis.com. Still trading inside the $5.00-$5.75 tender band as the original pass expected; tender expires September 29, 2026, not yet due for a grade. |
| ABUS | Pass on any directional ABUS options structure into the tender offer window | $5.21, close, 2026-08-21 | $5.12, Sep 3 close | -1.7%September 3 2026 close per StockAnalysis.com. Still trading inside the $5.00-$5.75 tender band as the original pass expected; tender expires September 29, 2026, not yet due for a grade. |
| DXLG | Pass on any directional DXLG options structure | $0.6361, close, 2026-08-24 | $0.62, Sep 9 close | -2.5%September 9 2026 close per StockAnalysis.com, down 1.60% on the day and essentially flat from the $0.6361 entry. DXL reported Q2 FY2026 results this morning (revenue $111.6m, down 3.4% YoY; adjusted EPS $0.05 against $0.01 a year ago; comps -3.5%, its best comp result in three years) and formalized the board's opposition to the FullBeauty merger in the same 8-K, urging shareholders to vote AGAINST the share-issuance proposal and disclosing that FullBeauty now has a contractual right to terminate the agreement over DXL's changed recommendation. No shareholder vote date has been set and the Zodiac tender situation is unchanged since it lapsed August 21, so none of the three invalidation triggers has fired yet. Both rows stay open. |
| DXLG | Pass on a directional view on DXLG common stock | $0.6361, close, 2026-08-24 | $0.62, Sep 9 close | -2.5%September 9 2026 close per StockAnalysis.com, down 1.60% on the day and essentially flat from the $0.6361 entry. DXL reported Q2 FY2026 results this morning (revenue $111.6m, down 3.4% YoY; adjusted EPS $0.05 against $0.01 a year ago; comps -3.5%, its best comp result in three years) and formalized the board's opposition to the FullBeauty merger in the same 8-K, urging shareholders to vote AGAINST the share-issuance proposal and disclosing that FullBeauty now has a contractual right to terminate the agreement over DXL's changed recommendation. No shareholder vote date has been set and the Zodiac tender situation is unchanged since it lapsed August 21, so none of the three invalidation triggers has fired yet. Both rows stay open. |
| BILL | Long $55/$65 call spread, January 2027 expiry, held through the August 19 fiscal Q4 print and the FY27 guide | $49.78, close, 2026-08-14 | $49.16, Sep 4 close | -1.2%Unchanged from the Aug 24 scorecard; not yet due (Jan 2027 expiry). |
| AAP | Long $60/$70 call spread, October 16 2026 expiry, into the August 20 Q2 print | $56.55, close, 2026-08-14 | $44.18, Sep 4 close | -21.9%Unchanged from the Aug 24 scorecard; not yet due (Oct 16 2026 expiry). |
| HD | Conditional long HD common stock, triggered off the August 18 2026 fiscal Q2 print, entered the Tuesday morning session | $340.26, open, 2026-08-18 | $321.05, Sep 4 close | -5.6%Unchanged from the Aug 24 scorecard; no dated checkpoint. |
| AVGO | Pass (bullish lean) on AVGO $400C Oct 16 2026 calls, dated past the September 2 2026 earnings print | $380, close, 2026-08-18 | $357.16, Sep 3 close | -6.0%Unchanged from the Aug 24 scorecard; not yet due (Oct 16 2026 expiry). |
| WEAV | Long common stock, merger-arb spread, held to deal close | $7.28, close, 2026-08-18 | $7.34, Sep 4 close | +0.8%Unchanged from the Aug 24 scorecard; no dated checkpoint. |
| MRNA | Long MRNA common at the August 19 close, held into the full INTerpath-001 data presentation | $174.38, close, 2026-08-19 | $145.61, Sep 4 close | -16.5%Unchanged from the Aug 24 scorecard; no dated checkpoint. |
| KLC | long shares after the 45% drop | $2.65, intraday, 2026-08-14 | $2.495, Sep 11 close | -5.8%Per StockAnalysis.com. |
| USO | WTI crude holds above $80 through end-September 2026 (spot view, no option leg) | $82.4, intraday, 2026-08-14 | $100.4, Sep 11 WTI spot | +21.8%WTI crude, per TradingEconomics.com. Up 21.85% from the $82.40 entry on Middle East conflict escalation. |
| BABA | long BABA ADS, second half, conditional on the stock trading below $117 after the print | $123.81, close, 2026-08-14 | $109.27, Sep 11 close | -11.7%Per StockAnalysis.com. Blended unrealized return -8.9% (leg 1: -11.74%, leg 2: -6.05%, equal-weighted). |
| NU | long NU common stock, no expiry, scored on the Q3 2026 earnings reaction session | $15.23, close, 2026-08-14 | $14.67, Sep 11 close | -3.7%Per StockAnalysis.com. |
| AMD | long AMD common stock, no expiry, scored on the Q3 2026 earnings reaction session | $514.39, close, 2026-08-14 | $513.53, Sep 11 close | -0.2%Per StockAnalysis.com. |
| AMD | long AMD calls bought into the session after the 6.50% gap; passed in favour of the shares | $514.39, close, 2026-08-14 | $513.53, Sep 11 close | -0.2%Per StockAnalysis.com; underlying only, no live option mark. |
| BIDU | long BIDU common stock, entered on the August 18 2026 close after the print, 12-month horizon | $90.87, close, 2026-08-18 | $91.99, Sep 11 close | +1.2%Per StockAnalysis.com. |
| NTES | long NTES common stock, 12-month horizon | $125.12, close, 2026-08-14 | $115.48, Sep 11 close | -7.7%Per StockAnalysis.com. |
| FN | long FN common stock entered after the print has repriced it, 12-month horizon | $513.7, open, 2026-08-18 | $413.48, Sep 11 close | -19.5%Per StockAnalysis.com; Yahoo Finance agrees to within $0.12. Down 19.51% from entry. 12-month horizon, not yet due for a grade. |
| ADI | Conditional post-print long (shares or 1-2 month calls), triggered if the fiscal Q4 guide carried adjusted operating margin above 49.0%, struck off the August 19 open | $378.55, open, 2026-08-19 | $372.38, Sep 11 close | -1.6%Per StockAnalysis.com. |
| SPCX | shares, post-unlock momentum long | $114.92, close, 2026-08-06 | $146.94, Sep 11 close | +27.9%Per StockAnalysis.com. |
| SMCI | shares, post-print long | $34.99, open, 2026-08-12 | $40.06, Sep 11 close | +14.5%Per StockAnalysis.com. |
| SE | shares, post-print long | $114.91, close | $107.55, Sep 11 close | -6.4%Per StockAnalysis.com. Down 6.40% from the $114.91 entry, a reversal from the +11.5% mark recorded Aug 12. |
| SNDK | two-month confirmation calls, Oct expiry, struck off the Aug 6 open | $1,258.58, open, 2026-08-06 | $1,628.57, Sep 11 close | +29.4%Underlying +29.4% from the $1,258.58 entry; the option leg (Oct expiry) has no live mark and is not yet due. |
1 further call is open without a mark, awaiting a settled session to grade against.
By Ticker
Every name with a logged call has its own page: the scoreboard and ledger for that ticker alone.
AMD 5MU 5NU 5AMAT 4BABA 4RDDT 4SNDK 4TGT 4BIDU 3DKNG 3FN 3PLTR 3RUM 3SE 3SHOP 3SMCI 3SPCX 3USO 3AAOI 2AAP 2ABNB 2ABUS 2ADI 2APP 2ARGX 2AUNA 2AVGO 2BILL 2CAPR 2CRCL 2DDOG 2DE 2DIS 2DXLG 2GOOGL 2KEYS 2LLY 2LZB 2META 2MRCY 2MRNA 2NTES 2NTNX 2PDD 2RARE 2SKHY 2TJX 2TNON 2TTD 2TTWO 2UBER 2UMAC 2WEAV 2WOLF 2ZYME 2AVB 1CAVA 1COTY 1EYPT 1HD 1KLC 1KOID 1KSTR 1KXIAY 1NVDA 1NYAX 1OKLO 1ROST 1USAR 1VALN 1VST 1XOS 1
The Full Ledger
One row per call, newest week first, losses shown with the same weight as wins. Pending rows are triggered conditionals whose entry has not been sourced yet; unscorable rows are published calls that can never be graded and stay on the ledger anyway, because deleting them would flatter the record. The CSV carries every field, including the thesis text and exit details.
Week of 2026-09-14 · scorecard
| Ticker | Call | Entry | Implied | Realised | Return on risk | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU | pass: Pass on selling MU premium (covered calls or cash-secured puts) into the September 30 fiscal Q4 2026 printVolatility, logged 2026-09-16 | $929, intraday, 2026-09-16 | 10.9% | Open |
Week of 2026-08-24 · scorecard
| Ticker | Call | Entry | Implied | Realised | Return on risk | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABUS | pass: Pass on chasing ABUS common stock ahead of the modified Dutch auction tender offerStock direction, logged 2026-08-24 | $5.21, close, 2026-08-21 | Open | |||
| ABUS | pass: Pass on any directional ABUS options structure into the tender offer windowOptions direction, logged 2026-08-24 | $5.21, close, 2026-08-21 | Open | |||
| USAR | pass: Pass on any directional USAR options structure into the Aug. 28 stockholder voteOptions direction, logged 2026-08-24 | $19.26, close, 2026-08-21 | -8.6% | Loss | ||
| DXLG | pass: Pass on any directional DXLG options structureOptions direction, logged 2026-08-25 | $0.6361, close, 2026-08-24 | Open | |||
| DXLG | pass: Pass on a directional view on DXLG common stockStock direction, logged 2026-08-25 | $0.6361, close, 2026-08-24 | Open | |||
| NYAX | pass: Pass on any directional NYAX options structure into the IPS Group acquisition newsOptions direction, logged 2026-08-25 | $51.26, intraday, 2026-08-25 | +2.8% | Win |
Week of 2026-08-17 · scorecard
Week of 2026-08-10 · scorecard
Week of 2026-08-03 · scorecard
| Ticker | Call | Entry | Implied | Realised | Return on risk | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | pass: long straddle into the printVolatility, logged 2026-08-03 | $125.65, close, 2026-08-03 | 10-15% | +29.4% | Loss | |
| PLTR | pass: short premium into the print (any structure)Volatility, logged 2026-08-03 | $125.65, close, 2026-08-03 | 10-15% | +29.4% | Win | |
| PLTR | long: conditional post-print long (shares or 1-2 month calls)Stock direction, logged 2026-08-03 | $145.15, open, 2026-08-04 | +14.4% | Win | ||
| AMD | pass: long straddle into the printVolatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $484.64, close, 2026-08-03 | 12.3% | -0.3% | Win | |
| AMD | pass: short premium into the print (any structure)Volatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $484.64, close, 2026-08-03 | 12.3% | -0.3% | Loss | |
| AMD | long: conditional post-print long, struck off the Aug 5 2026 openStock direction, logged 2026-08-04 | $484.5, open, 2026-08-05 | +6.0% | Win | ||
| SHOP | pass: long straddle into the printVolatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $126.88, close, 2026-08-03 | 12.5% | +13.7% | Loss | |
| SHOP | pass: short premium into the print (any structure)Volatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $126.88, close, 2026-08-03 | 12.5% | +13.7% | Win | |
| SHOP | long: conditional post-print long (shares or 1-2 month calls)Stock direction, logged 2026-08-04 | $150, open, 2026-08-05 | -13.0% | Loss | ||
| DDOG | long: long straddle into the printVolatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $273.6, close, 2026-08-03 | 13% | +17.0% | +30.8%modeled | Win |
| DDOG | pass: short premium into the print (any structure)Volatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $273.6, close, 2026-08-03 | 13% | +17.0% | Win | |
| TTD | long: long straddle into the printVolatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $18.3, close, 2026-08-03 | 13% | -24.6% | +89.2%modeled | Win |
| TTD | pass: short premium into the print (any structure)Volatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $18.3, close, 2026-08-03 | 13% | -24.6% | Win | |
| TTWO | pass: long straddle into the printVolatility, logged 2026-08-03 | $242.92 | 7.7% | +1.5% | Win | |
| TTWO | pass: short premium into the print (any structure)Volatility, logged 2026-08-03 | $242.92 | 7.7% | +1.5% | Loss | |
| VST | pass: any pre-print options positionVolatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $141.38, close, 2026-07-31 | 6.4% | -0.6% | Win | |
| OKLO | pass: any pre-print positionVolatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $41.22, close, 2026-07-31 | 13% | +17.5% | Loss | |
| CAVA | pass: any pre-print positionVolatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $65.23 | 11-14% | +6.5% | Win | |
| UBER | pass: long straddle into the printVolatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $71.61 | 7-8% | -4.8% | Win | |
| UBER | pass: short premium into the print (any structure)Volatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $71.61 | 7-8% | -4.8% | Loss | |
| DIS | pass: any pre-print options positionVolatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $98.14, close, 2026-08-03 | 6% | +3.7% | Win | |
| DIS | long: conditional post-print long (shares or 1-2 month calls)Stock direction, logged 2026-08-04 | $101.99, open, 2026-08-05 | +5.0% | Win | ||
| LLY | pass: any pre-print options positionVolatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $1,121.36, close, 2026-08-03 | 6.9-7.4% | +4.5% | Win | |
| LLY | long: conditional post-print long (shares or defined-risk call spread)Stock direction, logged 2026-08-04 | $1,174, open, 2026-08-05 | -5.0% | Loss | ||
| SPCX | pass: long put into the unlock weekOptions direction, logged 2026-08-03 | $108.37 | 12.5% | +22.8% | Win | |
| SPCX | pass: long straddle into the unlock weekVolatility, logged 2026-08-03 | $108.37 | 12.5% | +22.8% | Loss | |
| SPCX | long: shares, post-unlock momentum longStock direction, logged 2026-08-07 | $114.92, close, 2026-08-06 | Open | |||
| SMCI | pass: long straddle into the printVolatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $28.4, close | 18% | +32.4% | Loss | |
| SMCI | pass: short premium into the print (any structure)Volatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $28.4, close | 18% | +32.4% | Win | |
| SMCI | long: shares, post-print longStock direction, logged 2026-08-12 | $34.99, open, 2026-08-12 | Open | |||
| SE | pass: long straddle into the printVolatility, logged 2026-08-06 | $114.91, close | 19.1% | +14.5% | Win | |
| SE | pass: short premium into the print (any structure)Volatility, logged 2026-08-06 | $114.91, close | 19.1% | +14.5% | Loss | |
| SE | long: shares, post-print longStock direction, logged 2026-08-06 | $114.91, close | Open | |||
| MU | pass: long puts on the gap, Aug 7 weeklyOptions direction, logged 2026-08-03 | $801, premarket, 2026-08-03 | +9.6% | Win | ||
| MU | pass: selling premium (covered call or cash-secured put), any August expiryVolatility, logged 2026-08-03 | $801, premarket, 2026-08-03 | Unscorable | |||
| SNDK | pass: long strangle into the Aug 5 print, Aug 7 weekly, first strikes either side of spotVolatility, logged 2026-08-03 | $1,214.83, close, 2026-07-31 | 17.5-25% | Unscorable | ||
| MU | pass: selling MU puts (suspended), any near-dated expiryVolatility, logged 2026-07-16 | $903, close, 2026-07-15 | Unscorable | |||
| MU | pass: pair: MU puts against long SNDKOptions direction, logged 2026-07-16 | not sourced | Unscorable | |||
| GOOGL | pass: chasing calls on the DeepMind-shakeup dipOptions direction, logged 2026-08-05 | $379.72, intraday, 2026-08-05 | -9.5% | Win | ||
| GOOGL | short: short premium, $366-381 strike zoneVolatility, logged 2026-08-05 | $379.72, intraday, 2026-08-05 | -9.5% | Loss | ||
| META | pass: chasing calls into the gapOptions direction, logged 2026-08-03 | $580, intraday, 2026-08-03 | +2.0% | Win | ||
| META | pass: short premium into the gap (any structure)Volatility, logged 2026-08-03 | $580, intraday, 2026-08-03 | +2.0% | Loss | ||
| DKNG | pass: long straddle into the printVolatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $22.17, close | 9% | +8.4% | Win | |
| DKNG | pass: short premium into the print (any structure)Volatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $22.17, close | 9% | +8.4% | Loss | |
| DKNG | long: conditional post-call long (shares or 1-2 month calls)Stock direction, logged 2026-08-04 | not sourced | Unscorable | |||
| APP | pass: long straddle into the printVolatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $406.16 | 12-13% | -17.4% | Loss | |
| APP | pass: short premium into the print (any structure)Volatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $406.16 | 12-13% | -17.4% | Win | |
| SKHY | pass: long calls into the shareholder-return catalystOptions direction, logged 2026-08-03 | $143.73 | +15.3% | Loss | ||
| SKHY | pass: short puts into the shareholder-return catalystOptions direction, logged 2026-08-03 | $143.73 | +15.3% | Loss | ||
| SNDK | pass: buying the extended-hours dip, immediately post-printStock direction, logged 2026-08-05 | $1,350.5, close, 2026-08-05 | -6.8% | Win | ||
| SNDK | pass: selling premium into the post-print collapse in implied, Aug or Sep expiryVolatility, logged 2026-08-05 | $1,350.5, close, 2026-08-05 | Unscorable | |||
| SNDK | long: two-month confirmation calls, Oct expiry, struck off the Aug 6 openOptions direction, logged 2026-08-05 | $1,258.58, open, 2026-08-06 | Open | |||
| ABNB | pass: any pre-print options positionVolatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $151.6, close, 2026-08-03 | Unscorable | |||
| ABNB | long: conditional post-print long (shares or 1-2 month calls)Stock direction, logged 2026-08-04 | $164.7, open, 2026-08-07 | +3.3% | Win | ||
| CRCL | pass: any directional pre-print positionOptions direction, logged 2026-08-03 | $61.59, intraday, 2026-08-03 | Unscorable | |||
| CRCL | long: conditional post-print longStock direction, logged 2026-08-03 | $61.96, open, 2026-08-05 | +46.3% | Win | ||
| AMAT | pass: any pre-print options positionVolatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $534.54, close, 2026-08-13 | 7.5-14% | -5.1% | Win | |
| AMAT | long: post-print long (shares or 1-2 month calls), struck off the August 14 2026 openStock direction, logged 2026-08-04 | $499.4, open, 2026-08-14 | -8.6% | Loss |
Use This Data
Licensed CC BY 4.0: copy it, chart it, audit it, including commercially. The only ask is attribution with a link. Suggested citation:
Track Record Ledger, Regards of Wallstreet, retrieved 2026-09-28, https://www.regardsofwallstreet.com/data/track-record
Found a grading error? The methodology page explains how corrections work (they stay visible, they do not vanish), and the contact form reaches us. Related: the Earnings Expectations Database tracks the implied-vs-realised moves these volatility calls are graded against.
The Week-Ahead Brief
Don’t miss next week’s setups. Get the Sunday brief.
Latest issue, Sep 27“Micron, PCE and the jobs report that decides October”
Every Sunday: next week’s earnings dates, Fed days and the trades worth watching, from the same desk that writes the week-ahead hub. Free, built for retail investors.