AAPL: Expectations vs Outcomes

Reported 2026-11-02 (after close) · reaction session 2026-11-03

No implied move was quoted for this print, so it is tracked on the guidance axis only.

The guide that cost Apple its worst session in 16 months: 9% to 11% against the 12% the street had modelled. Consensus above the top of the range is exactly the setup this dataset exists to flag before the print rather than after.

Apple reported after the close on Monday, November 2: net sales of $114,477 million against $102,466 million a year earlier, growth of 11.72%, which Apple rounds to 12%. That is above the top of its own 9% to 11% guide and level with the 12% the street had modelled in July. Tariff refunds added about 1 point to gross margin and 5 cents to earnings per share, and they are not in this revenue figure. No implied move was priced on the site before the print, so the row tracks guidance only.

Our coverage of the print where it was issuedApple fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1investinglive: revenue tops $114 billionOur November 2 UPDATE on the week-ahead hub

Reported 2026-07-30 (after close) · reaction session 2026-07-31

Implied

±4.0%

struck an earlier session, 2026-07-27

Realised

-7.3%

close to close

Ratio

1.82x

+3.3% vs priced

Rolling

1.82x

after 1 scored

A quarter reported everywhere as a beat that landed squarely inside the range Apple had already published. Consensus had parked itself in the middle of that range, which is why beating it was worth so little and the September guide decided the session instead.

The extended-hours reaction was 7.8%; the regular-session close on July 31 was 308.91, about 7.3% lower. The row scores the close. Apple was the clearest case of a straddle priced off a placid one-year average meeting a quarter that was not placid.

Our options-flow piece: a 4% implied move against a 1% one-year averageBloomberg: worst decline in 16 monthsCNBCOur preview