← Option Trades · Experimental · High Risk
TLT: Long put
Bearish20+ Year Treasury ETF
The 30-year sits at 5.27% and the relief rally lasted a week. Fade the bounce.
By Atul Ghandhi · Updated August 25, 2026 (2026-08-25)
The Trade
| Leg | Type | Strike | Expiry |
|---|---|---|---|
| buy | put | $81.00 | Fri, Sep 4 |
Struck against: $82.56 ▲ 0.62% (Aug 24 close, per StockAnalysis.com)
Catalyst: July PCE Wednesday Aug 26, Warsh Friday Aug 28, August jobs report Friday Sep 4
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The Exits
- Profit order
- Sell at 100% profit whenever it prints. Rate moves come fast and retrace.
- Loss cut
- If TLT closes above $84, the bounce is a rally. Sell at 50% loss instead of holding for the full loss.
- Time stop
- Out by 10am on September 4. The jobs print is the last catalyst and the expiry is the same day.
Why This Trade
The 30-year yield closed last week near 5.27% and the 10-year near 4.7%. The rally that followed Treasury’s expanded buyback plan gave itself back within days. The long end keeps finding sellers.
TLT rose 0.62% on Monday to $82.56. This trade fades that bounce. Bond prices fall when yields rise, so a put on TLT is a bet that the selloff resumes.
Three catalysts point the same way. A hot PCE Wednesday hurts bonds. A hawkish first speech from Warsh hurts bonds. A strong jobs number on expiry morning hurts bonds. The trade needs one of the three.
The loss case is a growth scare: soft data pulls money into Treasuries, yields fall, and TLT rallies through $84. Bonds are the place fear hides, and fear is not schedulable.
The Chain
The Fri, Sep 4 strikes this trade lives in. Cboe delayed quotes as of 2026-08-26 17:27:26 ET, with TLT at $83.19. The page refreshes the numbers hourly.
| Calls | Strike | Puts | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bid | Ask | Last | · | Bid | Ask | Last |
| 4.15 | 4.30 | 3.65 | 79.00 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| 3.20 | 3.30 | 3.31 | 80.00 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| 2.21 | 2.28 | 2.12 | 81.00 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| 1.31 | 1.34 | 1.27 | 82.00 | 0.23 | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| 0.61 | 0.62 | 0.61 | 83.00 | 0.61 | 0.63 | 0.61 |