CoreWeave Earnings Preview (August 11): A $100 Billion Backlog, a $35 Billion Capex Bill, and a Stock That Round-Tripped 40% in July

TL;DR

• CoreWeave reports Q2 2026 results Tuesday, August 11, after the close, with the call at 5:00pm ET, the same evening as Super Micro: an AI-infrastructure doubleheader.
• Consensus wants $2.56 billion of revenue, up about 112% from $1.21 billion, sitting inside the company's guided $2.45-2.6 billion. The consensus loss is around $1.27 per share (on an adjusted basis, widening from $0.27), because profitability is not the current argument.
• The argument is the ledger: a backlog of nearly $100 billion at last disclosure, fattened by Meta's $21 billion expansion (to $35 billion of total commitments) and an Anthropic deal in April, against $31-35 billion of guided 2026 capex and a $12-13 billion full-year revenue guide, with exit run-rate guided to $18-19 billion.
• July was a violent round trip: from the low $90s to a July 29 low near $60, then a rip back on a Truist upgrade, AWS's blowout read-through and a Leidos federal partnership; Monday's close landed in the mid-$80s after a double-digit session jump (exact prints conflict across sources; we could not pin the close to the cent).
• The stock remains roughly a third below its June high; implied-move quotes in circulation (~12.5%) predate the August setup, so treat the options pricing as unconfirmed.

When Does CoreWeave Report Earnings?

The short answer: Tuesday August 11, after the 4:00pm ET close, call at 5:00pm ET. Next week's full slate sits in the earnings calendar; this piece will be updated in place once the print lands.

The Board

Revenue doubling, losses widening, backlog compounding. The model is the bet; the quarter is a progress report.

The Ledger Company

CoreWeave's Q1 disclosure set the frame the market now trades on: backlog near $100 billion, more than $40 billion of new commitments booked in a single quarter, over 1 gigawatt of active power against 3.5 GW contracted, and management declaring 2026 capacity "largely sold out". April added the two logos that matter: Meta expanding by $21 billion through 2032 (to $35 billion total) and a multi-year Anthropic agreement that moved the stock double digits on announcement day.

Tuesday's print gets graded against that ledger, not the income statement: a fresh backlog number, any new commitments, and the pace at which contracted gigawatts become revenue-generating ones. Consensus revenue of $2.56 billion (+112%) inside the guide is close to a formality; the exit-run-rate guide of $18-19 billion is the number that carries the valuation.

The Other Side of the Ledger

The bear case is the same ledger read upside down: $31-35 billion of capex against $12-13 billion of revenue this year, widening losses (consensus -$1.27 a share), margin compression already flagged in Q1, and a funding treadmill that priced a $1.75 billion convertible in April. When sentiment wobbles, this structure trades like a leveraged bet on AI capex durability, which is exactly what July looked like: low $90s to near $60 on July 29, then straight back up on a Truist upgrade, AWS printing 37% growth, and a Leidos partnership carrying CoreWeave into federal workloads.

A stock that can round-trip 40% in three weeks on no company-specific earnings news is telling you what the print can do. Watch three things: any new debt or convertible commentary, margin trajectory against the compression flagged in Q1, and whether "largely sold out" for 2026 becomes sold out into 2027.

The Options Angle

We are not logging options plays: the implied-move quotes in circulation (~12.5%) trace to the prior quarter at a different share price, and the Monday close itself could not be verified to the cent across sources. An unpriceable trade cannot be honestly scored. The equity framing instead: after a 40% round trip, the market has demonstrated both its fear and its greed on this name inside one month, and the print lands with the stock in the middle of that range, which is the fairest entry the tape has offered since spring, in both directions.

The One-Line Read

CoreWeave will report a quarter that doubled, guide to a year that doubles again, and spend three times its revenue building for the year after that; Tuesday decides nothing about whether that model works, only whether the backlog and the funding keep arriving faster than the doubt, which in July they did, twice, in opposite directions.