Options Scorecard: No New Grades This Week, and an Analog Devices Round Trip

TL;DR

• No trade-log call reached a dated checkpoint the week of September 21-25. The standing ledger holds at 73 of 117 scored calls right, a 62.4% hit rate, unchanged from last week. Nothing here is a new grade.
• Analog Devices' conditional long round-tripped through its own one-month mark. The stock fell as far as 6.0% under its $378.55 entry by September 2, sat below entry through September 18, then closed the week of September 21-25 at $390.37, $385.23, $382.61 and $393.60, the last one up 3.98% from entry. The call gave itself a one-to-two-month window, so it stays open, not graded.
• Weave Communications' merger-arb long cleared a real, dated event without being graded. The Francisco Partners buyout's HSR antitrust waiting period ended September 21, one of two named closing conditions. The stock trades a normal arb discount under the $7.40 deal price, still pending the shareholder vote and the Q4 close.
• No new calibration data this week, but the Analog Devices swing is its own small lesson: a position that is 6% underwater one month into a two-month window has not failed, and one that closes the week 4% ahead has not been confirmed either. Judge the whole window, not one day inside it.

The Board

Nothing graded this week. The ledger holds where it stood, and two open positions got real news instead.

Why Nothing Graded This Week

Every one of the 25 open positions on this site's ledger carries a catalyst date, and none of them landed between September 21 and 25. The last scorecard closed out its two calls at their own September 18 expiry. The next dated checkpoints are Arbutus Biopharma's tender offer, expected to expire around September 29, and Micron's fiscal Q4 print on September 30, both still days out. Analog Devices' conditional long entered its window this past weekend, which is the closest thing to news the ledger had this week, covered below.

The week's ten earnings reports, Cintas, General Mills, Paychex, Cracker Barrel, H.B. Fuller and Stitch Fix on Wednesday, then BlackBerry, TD Synnex, Darden and Costco on Thursday, are all covered on the current week-ahead hub. None of them carried a priced options play in this site's trade log, so none has a ledger row to grade. That hub is the place to read what happened in each one; this page only grades calls that were logged in advance with an entry and a structure.

Analog Devices: The Round Trip

Analog Devices' fiscal Q3 preview logged a conditional post-print long, set to trigger if the fiscal Q4 guide carried adjusted operating margin above 49.0%. It did: the August 19 call gave a 52.0% guide, and the position converted to a real row struck at that morning's opening price of $378.55. The thesis was that a margin guide this clean would re-rate the stock over the following one to two months.

The month that followed did not go in a straight line. ADI closed August 19 at $373.26, then drifted lower: $370.24 on August 20, down to $355.71 by September 2, which is 6.0% under the $378.55 entry, and it was still under entry as late as September 18's $375.72 close, per StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance, which agree on every session in this window. Read the invalidation clause literally ("the stock fails to hold or extend the trigger-day entry") and this looked like a losing call for most of a month.

Then it turned. ADI closed the week of September 21-25 at $383.00, $390.37, $385.23, $382.61 and $393.60, the last one up 2.87% on the day alone and 3.98% above the original entry. The S&P 500 moved from 768.89 to roughly $771 on the SPY over the same stretch, a gain of about 0.3%. That figure comes from StockAnalysis.com and Investing.com, which read $770.95 and $771.35 respectively for September 25, close enough to treat as $771. Analog Devices is running more than three and a half percentage points ahead of the index since the trigger.

This is not a grade. The structure explicitly gave itself one to two months, which runs to roughly October 19. A call that spent most of its window underwater before a strong final week is exactly the shape this site's own rule warns about: judge a window by its window, not by a snapshot pulled from the middle of it or a strong finish read too early. The ledger mark now reads $393.60, current as of September 25. The next real look comes when the window closes or the stock breaks meaningfully one way or the other before then.

Weave Communications: One Closing Condition Cleared

Weave Communications' merger-arb long, logged against Francisco Partners' $7.40-a-share all-cash buyout, named two closing conditions when it was struck: HSR antitrust clearance and a Weave shareholder vote. The first one cleared on September 21, 2026, when the waiting period under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Act received early termination, per the company's own SEC filing, confirmed by wire coverage the same day.

That does not close the deal. Management still targets a Q4 2026 close, subject to the stockholder vote. But it removes the one risk in this position that had nothing to do with shareholders voting yes, which is normally the more mechanical of the two conditions on a fully financed, board-recommended cash deal. WEAV closed September 25 at $7.35 per StockAnalysis.com (a second read had it at $7.36), up 0.96% from the $7.28 entry and about 0.7% under the $7.40 deal price, the ordinary discount for the time still left before closing. The position stays open into the vote.

Where the Ledger Stands

No new grades this week, so the standing numbers are last week's: 117 scored calls, 73 wins and 44 losses, a 62.4% hit rate, against a 64.96% thesis-accuracy rate (the two diverge because a call can predict the right phenomenon and still lose on the structure chosen to express it, and vice versa). By category:

Category	Scored	Hit rate
Options-direction	25	68.0%
Stock-direction	31	64.5%
Volatility	57	57.9%
Event	4	75.0% (too few calls to trust)

Only nine calls across the whole ledger carry a stated return-on-risk figure, the input the expectancy calculation needs; of those, the win rate is 66.7% with an average win of about 50% and an average loss of about 50%, for an expectancy of roughly +17% per priced call. That sample is small enough to move a lot with the next few grades, which is the honest caveat rather than a reason to withhold the number. The full ledger recomputes all of this from the same rows, with CSV and JSON downloads.

Not Yet Due

Twenty-five positions carry into the next cycle. Arbutus Biopharma's tender-offer passes are the closest dated checkpoint, expected around September 29. Micron's fiscal Q4 print lands September 30 and will settle the premium-selling pass logged against it. WTI crude remains comfortably above the $80 level this site's oil call needs to hold, with its own checkpoint at the end of September. Everything else, SpaceX, Super Micro, Sea Limited, SanDisk, KLC, Baidu, NetEase, Fabrinet, Home Depot, BILL, Advance Auto Parts, Broadcom, Moderna, AMD, Nu Holdings, Arbutus's options leg, Destination XL's two passes and Analog Devices above, has no checkpoint landing before next Friday.

The Calibration Lesson

There is no new grade to calibrate against this week. What Analog Devices offers instead is a reminder about reading a window mid-flight: a position framed as "one to two months" was down 6% at the one-month mark and up 4% five days later. Either reading in isolation would have been wrong to publish as a verdict. The lesson carried since mid-August still holds for what did get graded: check whether the realised move is beating or missing what was actually priced in, and let that decide the next call, rather than a general view that options are cheap or expensive.

The One-Line Read

No call reached its own checkpoint this week, the standing record holds at 73 of 117, and the two positions worth watching are exactly the ones nobody can grade yet.