MP Materials Earnings Preview (August 6): Reporting From China's Blacklist With a Pentagon Price Floor

TL;DR

• MP Materials reports Q2 2026 results Thursday, August 6, after the close, with the call at 5:00pm ET, its first since China's Ministry of Commerce added MP to an export-control list in late June.
• The market's response was a one-way slide: from a $57.55 close on June 12 to fresh 52-week lows, closing Friday July 31 at $41.37, roughly 59% below its 52-week high of $100.25.
• Expectations for the quarter: revenue around $98 million, up roughly 70% from $57.4 million a year ago, with EPS quotes straddling breakeven. MP gives no formal guidance, so the print is graded on trajectory: Q1 did $90.6 million, up 49%.
• The floor under the story is federal: the Department of Defense package ($400 million preferred investment, a $150 million loan, a 10-year $110/kg NdPr price floor and offtake, plus the "10X" magnet facility) and Apple's $500 million magnet agreement with shipments starting 2027.
• This is the site's under-covered pick of the week: a hard catalyst, thin quality coverage, and a genuinely two-sided story between the blacklist and the Pentagon.

When Does MP Materials Report Earnings?

The short answer: Thursday August 6, after the 4:00pm ET close, with the call at 5:00pm ET. It shares the evening with Airbnb and The Trade Desk; the full slate is in the week-ahead hub.

The Board

Blacklisted by Beijing, price-floored by the Pentagon. Thursday is the first management commentary on both.

What the Blacklist Actually Does

In late June, China's Ministry of Commerce added MP Materials to an export-control list, banning dual-use exports to the company. The stock's slide from the high-$50s to the low-$40s priced a lot of fear with very little detail, which is precisely what Thursday's call can fix: management's first extended commentary on the practical impact (equipment sourcing, processing consumables, anything in the supply chain that previously crossed the Pacific).

The irony is that the blacklist is also the bull thesis stated by the other side: China restricting a US rare-earth producer is the clearest confirmation that Western supply chains need exactly what Mountain Pass does.

The Pentagon Put and the Apple Order Book

The reason MP is not an ordinary commodity cyclical anymore:

• The DoD package: a $400 million convertible preferred investment plus warrant, a $150 million loan for heavy rare earth separation at Mountain Pass, a 10-year price floor at $110/kg for NdPr, a 10-year offtake, and the "10X" magnet facility. A federal price floor under your core product is about as close to a government put as equity markets offer.
• Apple's $500 million agreement for US-made recycled rare-earth magnets, with shipments starting 2027 out of the expanding Fort Worth operation.

Both deals are ramp stories, so the quarter's job is evidence of execution: separation volumes, magnet facility progress, NdPr production and realised pricing against that $110 floor.

The Quarter Itself

The numbers expected: revenue around $98 million, up roughly 70% year on year (a figure sourced from aggregator consensus, so treat the precise level loosely), against $57.4 million a year ago and $90.6 million last quarter. EPS quotes straddle breakeven ($0.02 to -$0.01 across providers), which is not the point at this stage of the buildout; cash burn against the DoD-funded capex plan is the line that matters.

We could not source an options-implied move for this print, and the chains on a $41 stock this volatile are wide, so no options plays are logged: an unpriceable trade cannot be scored. The equity decision is the piece: this is a story stock at a 52-week low with two structural buyers underneath it and one superpower against it.

The One-Line Read

MP Materials walks into Thursday down 59% from its high, blacklisted by the country that controls its industry and price-floored by the country that needs it not to matter, and the call is the first chance to learn which of those two facts is doing more work at $41.