Stock Market Week Ahead (August 3-7): AMD and SpaceX Earnings, Eli Lilly, $116 Billion of Unlocks and the July Jobs Report

TL;DR

• Tuesday August 4 is the week. AMD reports after the close, and SpaceX reports its first quarter as a public company the same day.
• Thursday August 6 is the one nobody is ready for. Roughly 911.5 million SpaceX shares, worth about $116 billion, become eligible to trade. The entire IPO was 555.6 million shares.
• Friday August 7 at 8:30am ET brings the July jobs report, which now outranks any inflation print after June came in at 57,000 against 115,000 expected, with 74,000 of downward revisions.
• Eli Lilly reports Wednesday before the open, alongside the FDA decision on Moderna's flu vaccine. ISM manufacturing lands Monday at 10:00am ET, ADP and ISM services Wednesday.

The One-Sentence Setup

Last week was megacap earnings. This week is the bill arriving: the last big AI chip read in AMD, the first ever public quarter from the largest listing of the year, $116 billion of that same company's stock becoming sellable two days later, and a payrolls print that decides whether the Fed's three hawkish dissenters were right.

The Board

Two earnings, an FDA decision, $116 billion of unlocks and payrolls. No quiet day again.

Monday, August 3: ISM Manufacturing

ISM manufacturing lands at 10:00am ET, with forecasters looking for a rise to about 54 from 53.3 in June. Above 50 means expansion.

It is the quietest day of the week and the only one to position in. Everything after Monday is an event.

When Does AMD Report Earnings? Tuesday, August 4

After the close on Tuesday. Consensus is EPS of about $1.62 against $0.48 a year ago, more than triple, on revenue of roughly $11.3 billion, up 47%.

Note the bar management set for itself: AMD guided to $11.2 billion plus or minus $300 million, about 46% growth at the midpoint. Consensus sits inside that range, which means the headline is close to pre-agreed and the beat is worth very little on its own.

AMD is the last receipt in the AI capex argument that has driven every session this month, and it sits on the other side of the ledger from everyone who has already reported. Microsoft answered the capex question with $678 billion of contracted backlog and was rewarded. Amazon showed AWS accelerating to 36.7% and ran to roughly $254. Alphabet guided capex up without a receipt and was punished.

Those are all buyers of compute. AMD is a seller. If the hyperscalers are spending what they say, it shows up in AMD's data centre line. A miss would be the most damaging single data point the AI trade has had, because it would mean the promised spending is not converting into orders.

SpaceX also reports Tuesday, its first results since the largest listing of the year: no history to model, no seasonality, no prior guide. And the release itself triggers the first lock-up tranche, which is why Thursday matters.

Wednesday, August 5: Eli Lilly, Moderna's FDA Decision, ADP

Eli Lilly reports before the open, call at 10:00am ET. It is the largest healthcare name of the week and the rare megacap growth story with nothing to do with AI, which makes it a genuine diversifier in a tape driven entirely by capex.

The FDA decides on Moderna's mRNA-1010 seasonal flu vaccine, which an advisory committee backed 9-0. As we set out in the Moderna breakdown, that date carries more weight than any quarter the company reports this year. A company doing $145 million of quarterly revenue against a $782 million loss either gains a second franchise on Wednesday or does not.

ADP employment and ISM services land the same day. ADP is the first read on Friday.

Thursday, August 6: $116 Billion of SpaceX Unlocks

The most mechanically important date on the calendar, and the least discussed.

Roughly 911.5 million SPCX shares, worth about $116 billion, become eligible to trade. For scale, the entire IPO sold 555,555,555 shares. More stock turns sellable on Thursday than the offering that created the public float.

It is a staircase rather than a cliff, running in tranches to December 8, and Musk and a select group of insiders stay locked until mid-2027. Full schedule in the SPCX lock-up calendar.

There is a second, conditional tranche of 455.8 million shares, and it is worth knowing precisely why it almost certainly will not arrive. Those shares release early only if SPCX closes at or above $175.50 on at least five of the 10 trading days in the window running into earnings. That trigger is 30% above the $135 IPO price.

The stock is trading near $110, roughly 19% below the IPO price and close to its all-time low. The trigger sits about 60% above the current price, and it needs to be cleared five times in ten sessions, this week. It is not happening.

That is worth saying plainly rather than leaving as a scary number, and it cuts a specific way: those 455.8 million shares do not disappear, they roll to December 8. So the realistic August supply is the 911.5 million, and the failure to trigger quietly makes the December date bigger.

Eligible to trade is not the same as sold, and lock-ups are heavily pre-positioned, so plenty is in the price. But the sequencing is hostile: earnings Tuesday, supply Thursday. A disappointing first public quarter followed 48 hours later by the largest tranche of new stock is the worst possible ordering, and it is the one the calendar handed us.

Friday, August 7: The July Jobs Report

Nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate, 8:30am ET, and this is the number of the month. Capital Economics is looking for about 130,000 as state and local hiring fades.

The reason it matters is June: payrolls at 57,000 against 115,000 expected, with 74,000 of downward revisions and participation at a five-year low. We argued then that the jobs report matters more than CPI now, and the Fed has since made that more true. On July 29 it held at 3.50% to 3.75% on a 9-3 vote, with three members voting to hike, and the 30-year then pushed above 5.19%.

That is the trap, and it is two-sided. A hot number validates the three hawks and drives long yields higher, which is a discount-rate problem for every high-multiple stock regardless of earnings. A cold number confirms the labour market is cracking with inflation still at 3.3%, which is the stagflation read. The band in the middle that the market likes is narrower than usual.

One more date sits outside the week but lands on it: Replimune's FDA decision has a Sunday August 2 goal date, so the market reacts at Monday's open. The stock rose as much as 127% on a 10-3 advisory vote after two prior rejections, and we explained why we would not take a position into it.

The Playbook

• Tuesday is a two-event evening. Do not hold short-dated premium through both. AMD and SpaceX print the same day with correlated tape risk and no way to manage in between. Options are pricing an AMD move of roughly 12%, which is the market telling you it does not know either.
• The AMD guide beats the AMD quarter. Consensus already sits inside management's own range, so the beat is close to pre-agreed. Position for the data centre outlook. That is the lesson Apple taught last week, when a record margin lost to a soft September guide.
• Selling premium into a payrolls Friday is not the same as selling it into an earnings print. Macro gaps through strikes and does not respect an expected move. A defined-risk iron condor with real wings beats a naked strangle this week.
• Cash through Thursday is a legitimate position. The SPCX supply date is the only event on this calendar with a known direction of pressure and an unknown size.

The One-Line Read

Next week hands you the last big AI chip read in AMD, the first public quarter from the year's largest listing, $116 billion of that same company's stock becoming sellable two days later, an FDA decision and a payrolls print that settles whether the Fed's three dissenters were right: last week asked whether the megacaps could justify their spending, and this week asks whether anyone can still afford the discount rate.