Options Scorecard: The Week of August 17, Graded (25 Calls, 72% Right)

TL;DR

• Every logged play from the week of August 17, from the Ultragenyx FDA decision through Tenon Medical's second week of fallout, was checked against what actually happened: 18 of 25 resolved calls were right, a 72% hit rate.
• The clearest miss was assuming argenx's premarket pop would fade. ALKIVIA's myositis data cleared its endpoint, the stock closed August 17 up roughly 16-17%, and it kept climbing to a fresh all-time high near $1,040 by August 21. Both the shares pass and the options pass missed the same rally.
• Tenon Medical's second leg down was the largest single number left on the table. The stock kept sliding after a two-session round trip, down another 29% by the following Friday, and this page passed on the reversal along with the spike.
• Realized moves undershot implied in five of seven priced earnings prints this week (Keysight, Mercury, PDD, Coty, BILL), a near-reversal of the blow-through pattern from late July and early August. The two clean losses on the sell side, Keysight and PDD, were both passes on collecting a full premium that would have expired untouched.
• Ultragenyx's FDA approval is the week's most newsworthy grade and its quietest number. The DTX401 approval landed ahead of the PDUFA date, and the stock still barely moved off the entry.

The Board

18 of 25 right. The clean misses were both about assuming a move would fade: argenx's rally that kept going, and passing on shorting Tenon's reversal.

This covers every trade log from the week-ahead hub of August 17-21 plus the previews that spilled into the following days and have since resolved: Ultragenyx, Keysight, Mercury Systems, La-Z-Boy, argenx, Rumble, EyePoint, Xos, Home Depot, PDD Holdings, Weave Communications, Moderna, Auna, Unitree's Shanghai listing and Tenon Medical. It picks up where the August 10 scorecard left off and runs against the current week-ahead hub for whatever resolves next.

The Losses, Named

Seven calls lost this week. Grouped by mechanism, because a list of tickers on its own teaches nothing.

Assumed a premarket pop would fade. It kept climbing instead (2 calls)

• argenx (pass on the shares). The ALKIVIA Phase 3 myositis trial hit its primary endpoint, and the stock traded around $946-948 premarket before the DM subgroup's weaker result and the missing BLA filing timeline could get priced in during the regular session. They never did: ARGX closed August 17 around $988-992, up roughly 16-17%, and kept running to a fresh all-time high near $1,040 by August 21, about 10% past the premarket entry.
• argenx (pass on any directional options structure). Same rally, no chain sourced to price it. A call bought at the premarket level would have paid.

Passed on shorting the reversal, and the slide kept going (1 call)

• Tenon Medical (pass on chasing either direction). TNON had already round-tripped +109.4% then -38.0% across two sessions on a patent notice of allowance before this pass was logged. The stock did not stabilize: $6.31, $5.62, $5.21, $5.02 over the following four sessions, down another 29% from the $7.07 entry. The cash-and-dilution risk the thesis named kept pressuring the stock exactly as expected; the miss is on the shorting side of a pass that covered both directions.

Bought volatility that stayed calm (1 call)

• Coty (long straddle into the fiscal Q4 print). The thesis was that a levered balance sheet, $2.96bn of net debt against a stub of equity, would amplify whatever the FY27 outlook said. Coty's own outlook dodged the question: an unquantified "transition year," guided only one quarter out. The stock closed the reaction session at $2.75, down 3.5% from the $2.85 entry, well inside the 16.6% implied move. The balance-sheet thesis was directionally right about sensitivity; the actual guide gave the market nothing to react to.

Passed on selling rich premium, and it stayed calm, again (2 calls)

The same mechanism that cost this page money on Alibaba and Reddit the week before, repeating on two more names.

• Keysight (pass on selling naked premium). Orders held above $2bn a second straight quarter and the guide was tight to begin with. The stock moved about 2% after hours against a 9.4% implied move. Selling that premium would have collected clean.
• PDD Holdings (pass on an $80P/$95C short iron condor). PDD closed 1.48% lower against a 7.6% historical-average implied move, comfortably inside both strikes all session. The condor would have expired at max profit.

Passed on a straddle that blew through what was priced (1 call)

• La-Z-Boy (pass on the straddle). Covered in the August 10 scorecard's companion row; carried here for the full weekly count. Realized move of roughly 16.5% cleared the 10.3% implied with room to spare, and the pass on the straddle purchase forwent a real winner.

What Won

The FDA approved Ultragenyx's DTX401 ahead of schedule, and the stock barely noticed. The Ultragenyx preview passed on both the shares and any options structure into the August 23 PDUFA date, flagging genuine uncertainty from a Bedford, MA manufacturing facility question. The FDA granted accelerated approval after the close on August 19, four days early. RARE closed the next session at $25.32, down from the prior day's close, and was still trading a little below the $26.49 entry a week and a half later. An approval that does not move the stock is exactly the case where passing costs nothing, on either the shares or the (never-sourced) options.

BILL and Advance Auto Parts show the same split as Keysight above, on opposite sides. BILL's beat-and-raise FY27 guide moved the stock only about 4.8%, well inside the 12.8% implied, so the straddle pass wins. Advance Auto Parts went the other way entirely: comparable sales fell 0.5% against a thesis expecting roughly 2%, and the stock cratered 25.0% against a 14.3% implied move, nearly double. Passing on selling premium there was the right call for the opposite reason, a real guide miss on a small float that gapped straight through what was priced.

Rumble's weekly calls needed about 10% and got 8.1%. RUM closed its August 21 weekly expiry at $9.05, up from the $8.37 entry but short of what an at-the-money call near the $8.50 strike needed to clear its own cost. Close, and the pass wins. The conditional long that would have triggered on a close under $7.00 never fired; RUM moved the other way entirely, closing as high as $10.23 on August 25 on a new $13.7bn GPU-supply contract, so that trade stays pending, not scored.

Moderna's weekly calls would have needed the extended-hours print to hold, and it didn't. MRNA closed August 19 up 176.97% on the INTerpath-001 topline win, with an extended-hours print near $183.97 that evening. The stock gave most of it back the next session, closing August 20 at $133.32, before recovering to $145.13 by the Friday weekly expiry, still well short of the extended-hours level. Calls bought at Thursday's open would have lost; the pass wins.

EyePoint, Xos and Auna all whipsawed without a clean direction to catch. EyePoint closed the day of the LUGANO trial miss at $4.87, bounced to roughly $6.30 a week later, then settled back to almost exactly $4.87, a round trip that would have punished either side of a directional bet. Xos faded about 18% from its same-session entry after the initial Air Force contract pop, confirming the pass's own thesis that a float this small trading nearly seven times its share count in one session gives back a real piece of the move. Auna drifted down modestly through the week rather than resolving the round trip into a real rally.

Weave's merger arb is pinned exactly where a merger arb should sit. WEAV is trading around $7.29, about 1.5% under the $7.40 Francisco Partners deal price and essentially flat from entry, with no HSR clearance, vote date or competing bid reported yet. The options pass, betting there was no structure worth pricing on a name whose volatility should already be collapsing toward the deal price, reads correctly so far; the stock long itself stays open into the Q4 2026 target close.

KOID and KSTR both proved the point of the original pass: neither fund confirmed real Unitree exposure, and neither moved much either way. Unitree's Shanghai IPO popped roughly 460%, and the piece passed on both proxy ETFs for lacking confirmed, meaningful Unitree weight. A week later, KOID sat roughly flat near $37 and KSTR was modestly higher near $24.60, with no update on either fund's actual holdings or on the STAR 50's scheduled December review.

Not Yet Due

Several calls from this week are graded against a checkpoint that hasn't arrived: a later earnings print, a deal close, an expiry that landed after this scorecard was written. They stay open, with a mark rather than a grade.

Ticker	Call	Entry	Current mark	Unrealized	Graded at
NVDA Aug 28 weekly calls, pass	$216.85, Aug 20	$227.98, Aug 27 close	+5.1%, inside the 5.8% band so far	Aug 28 settled close
HD conditional long	$340.26, Aug 18 morning	~$328.61, Aug 27	~-3.4%	No dated checkpoint stated
MRNA long shares	$174.38, Aug 19	~$142.77, Aug 27	~-18.1%	Full INTerpath-001 data presentation, date TBD
WEAV merger-arb long	$7.28, Aug 18	$7.29, Aug 28	~flat, pinned near deal price	Deal close, Q4 2026 target
RUM shares pass (4-week window)	$8.37, Aug 17	$9.43, Aug 27	+12.7% (cost of the pass so far)	Mid-September
BILL $55/$65 call spread	$49.78 ref., Aug 14	$48.87, Aug 27	Below the $55 strike	Jan 2027 expiry
AAP $60/$70 call spread	$56.55 ref., Aug 14	$43.67, Aug 27	Deep below the $60 strike	Oct 16 2026 expiry
AVGO straddle pass	$380.00, Aug 18	No interim mark sourced	--	Sep 2 2026 earnings
AVGO $400C Oct calls, pass	$380.00, Aug 18	No interim mark sourced	--	Oct 16 2026 expiry

Never triggered: Rumble's conditional long needed a regular-session close under $7.00; the low close since entry has been $9.05, so the trigger never fired.

One call could not be scored. Tenon Medical's options pass has no chain to grade against: Nasdaq has never listed one on this name at any point in its trading history, reverse split included. Unlike a same-session sourcing failure, there is no hypothetical trade to compare it to, so it is marked unscorable rather than forced to a win or loss.

The Calibration Lesson

This week reversed the pattern from the two before it. Realized moves undershot the implied move in five of seven priced earnings reports (Keysight, Mercury, PDD, Coty and BILL all came in under; only La-Z-Boy and Advance Auto Parts blew through). Through most of July and into early August, the house reflex of "implied looks rich, don't sell it" cost this page money by standing aside on real blowouts: Fabrinet, Wolfspeed, Palantir, SanDisk. This week, the opposite caution, staying out of selling rich premium because a print always seems capable of surprising, cost money instead on Keysight and PDD, two names that reported almost exactly the quarter the market had already priced.

Nothing here says implied volatility is now reliably too expensive across the board. Advance Auto Parts moved nearly double what was priced, on a small float and a real guidance miss, in the same week. The distinguishing feature both times is the same one flagged in past scorecards: whether the guide detail inside the print, not just the beat or miss on the headline number, gives the market something new to argue about. A quarter that lands where it was already expected to land, orders above $2bn a second straight time for Keysight, a settlement inside historical range for PDD, doesn't move regardless of how rich the straddle looked going in.

The Full Ledger

Every scored row from this week, in one place. The Track Record ledger carries the complete dataset (CSV and JSON), recomputes every statistic from these same rows and breaks results out by category: options-direction hit 88% (7 of 8), stock-direction hit 71% (5 of 7), and volatility hit 60% (6 of 10).

Ticker	Play	Logged	Result	Realized vs. implied
RARE	Pass, long shares	$26.49, event	Win	~-1.7%, approval didn't move it
RARE	Pass, any options	same	Win	~-1.7%, approval didn't move it
KEYS	Pass, long straddle	$357.82, 9.4% implied	Win	-2% vs. implied
KEYS	Pass, short premium	same	Loss	-2% vs. implied
COTY	Long, long straddle	$2.85, 16.6% implied	Loss	-3.5% vs. implied
BILL	Pass, long straddle	$49.78, 12.8% implied	Win	-4.78% vs. implied
AAP	Pass, short premium	$56.55, 14.3% implied	Win	-25.0% vs. implied
MRCY	Pass, long shares	$111.12, 16% implied	Win	-10.5% vs. implied
MRCY	Pass, long straddle	same	Win	-10.5% vs. implied
LZB	Pass, short premium	$41.85, 10.3% implied	Win	-16.5% vs. implied
LZB	Pass, long straddle	same	Loss	-16.5% vs. implied
ARGX	Pass, long shares	$946.50, premarket	Loss	+9.9% vs. entry
ARGX	Pass, any options	same	Loss	+9.9% vs. entry
RUM	Pass, weekly calls	$8.37, ~10% implied	Win	+8.1% vs. implied
EYPT	Pass, any options	$4.60, event	Win	round-tripped, +5.9% net
XOS	Pass, any options	$4.31, event	Win	-17.9% vs. entry
PDD	Pass, long straddle	$87.27, 7.6% implied	Win	-1.48% vs. implied
PDD	Pass, short iron condor	same	Loss	-1.48% vs. implied
WEAV	Pass, any options	$7.28, event	Win	~flat, pinned near deal price
MRNA	Pass, weekly calls	$174.38, event	Win	-16.7% vs. AH print
AUNA	Pass, long shares	$5.43, event	Win	-5.9% vs. entry
AUNA	Pass, any options	same	Win	-5.9% vs. entry
KOID	Pass, long shares	$37.96, event	Win	-2.5% vs. entry
KSTR	Pass, long shares	$23.91, event	Win	+2.9% vs. entry
TNON	Pass, chase either direction	$7.07, event	Loss	-29.0% vs. entry

One row could not be scored: Tenon Medical's options pass, detailed above rather than forced into a grade.

The One-Line Read

Seventy-two percent on a week where the two real misses were both about assuming a move would fade: argenx's rally that kept going, and Tenon's slide that never stopped. The rest of the losses were the same premium-selling hesitation that cost money on Alibaba and Reddit the week before, showing up again on Keysight and PDD.