Fed Dot Plot September 2026: Nine Hike Dots, None of Them Warsh's

TL;DR

• The next dot plot publishes Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 2:00pm ET, with the FOMC statement. Projections come four times a year, and the June set is the baseline being revised.
• June's dots: 9 members projected at least one 2026 hike, 8 a hold, 1 a cut, and the year-end median rates forecast moved to 3.8% from 3.4% in March. Against the current 3.50-3.75% range, that median already contains a quarter-point hike by December.
• Chair Warsh filed no projection in June and has argued against forward guidance since taking the chair. If a dot appears under his name in September, it will become its own signal.
• The first of the two big data releases has landed. August payrolls rose 162,000 on September 4, and July's minus 23,000 was revised to plus 21,000. August CPI on September 11 is the last major release before the dots are filed.

When Is the Next Fed Dot Plot?

September 16, 2026, at 2:00pm ET, alongside the rate decision at the September 15-16 meeting. The Summary of Economic Projections comes out at March, June, September and December meetings, so this is the first look at the committee's rate path since June 17, and the first since summer data started pulling the Fed between fighting inflation and supporting the jobs market.

What the June Dots Actually Said

Before looking at September, it helps to start with June. Nine Fed officials expected at least one rate hike in 2026, eight expected no change, and one expected a cut. The Fed’s median forecast for the year-end rate rose to 3.8%, up from 3.4% in March.

The market spent August pricing out a hike that the Fed’s own June projections still implied. Now the markets are finally starting to price in a September hike, with odds near 60% at Friday's close, per the September Fed hub's tracking.

The rest of the June projection set, per the Fed's own table: PCE inflation for 2026 revised up to 3.6% from 2.7% in March, core PCE to 3.3% from 2.7%, and GDP growth trimmed to 2.2% from 2.4%. That inflation revision proved the Fed no longer expected inflation to improve much in 2026. A September revision will guide how 2027 starts.

The Missing Dot

Warsh does not file one. In June, his first projections meeting as chair, he submitted no rate projection at all, consistent with his long-stated view that dot plots are forward guidance the Fed should not be giving. His Jackson Hole speech repeated the no-guidance position on his 100th day in the job. Given all that, we don't expect a projection from Warsh.

The September dot plot will show whether the Fed as a whole has become more or less hawkish since June. Three things matter: whether the nine officials expecting a hike become more or less numerous, whether more officials start projecting a cut, and where the median year-end rate moves.

What Moves the Dots Between Now and Then

In order of weight:

September 4, August payrolls: released, and stronger than expected. Payrolls rose 162,000, more than double the highest estimate, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics. July's minus 23,000 was revised to plus 21,000, so the negative print that built the case for a hold in August is no longer in the data. Two caveats. Restaurants and local school hiring supplied 101,000 of the 162,000, a narrow base for a rebound. And wage growth slowed to 3.1% year over year, the one line in the report that argues against a hike. The jobs hub has the full breakdown.

September 11, August CPI. July CPI showed inflation at 3.4% and did little to change the outlook for rates. August CPI is released five days before the Fed decision, during the blackout window, so Fed officials will not comment publicly on the data before the meeting.

Another source of uncertainty is oil. Crude prices have been swinging sharply with each news update on the Iran war, rising above $100 before falling below $80 after news of the US-Iran pause. Prices are now climbing again as the conflict worsens. Large institutional investors will be watching to see whether that pushes the Fed’s 2027 inflation forecast higher or lower, because it could influence how they position for the months ahead. I.e., the people who move markets could decide its time to hedge/sell not buy.

Full runway on the economic calendar.

The Board

The June grid: nine dots above the line, and none of them the chair's.

The One-Line Read

The Fed’s June projections pointed to a 2026 rate hike, while markets spent most of the summer pricing one out. Jackson Hole made the markets price a hike back in, and the August jobs report kept it there. August CPI on September 11 will help decide which view survives.