Micron Earnings Expectations Tracker: Guidance, Estimates, Results and Stock Moves Every Quarter

TL;DR

• Tonight, September 30, Micron reports after the close. It forecast $50 billion of revenue and $31.00 a share for the quarter that ended September 3. Analysts expect about $51.1 billion and $31.61 (LSEG).
• Micron has beaten its own revenue forecast in all four reports since September 2025, by 1% to 28%. Each time, its forecast for the next quarter also came in above what analysts expected, by 5% to 38%.
• How far Micron's next-quarter forecast beat analysts has not predicted the stock's move. In March it beat them by the widest margin, 37.9%, and the stock fell 3.8% the next day and 17% over the week.
• Tonight, Micron's revenue forecast for the quarter ending in early December matters more than the results. Analysts expect $57.9 billion. Memory price forecasts point to less than that, so I think Micron is more likely to forecast below $57.9 billion.

The Board

Five reports, oldest first. Micron's revenue forecast for the next quarter beat analyst estimates every time, and the stock fell after two of the first four. The stock's one-day move after the September 30 report is added after the close on Thursday, October 1.

What Analysts Expect From Micron on September 30, 2026

Micron reports fiscal fourth-quarter results after the market closes today. Executives take analysts' questions on a conference call at 4:30pm ET. The quarter ended September 3 and ran 14 weeks, one more than usual, per Micron's last 10-Q.

What	Figure	Source
Micron's revenue forecast	$50.0 billion, plus or minus $1.0 billion	June 24 release
Micron's adjusted EPS forecast	$31.00, plus or minus $1.00	Same release
Micron's gross margin forecast	About 86%	Same release
Analyst estimate (LSEG)	$31.61 a share on $51.07 billion	CNBC, September 29
Analyst estimate (Yahoo Finance)	$31.82 a share from 33 analysts, $51.51 billion from 35	Yahoo Finance, September 30 morning
Whisper number	$36.60 a share, computed by this site	Earnings calendar, September 27
Memory prices, July to September	Conventional DRAM contract prices +13% to 18%, NAND +10% to 15%	TrendForce forecast, July 3
Options pricing	About 7.6% either way by Friday	October 2 $1,065 options, September 29 close
Analyst estimate for next quarter	$57.93 billion of revenue, $35.92 a share	Yahoo Finance, quarter ending December 3

A whisper number is an unofficial estimate above the published average. It exists because traders expect the company to beat. I could not find a published whisper for this quarter that I can check. So the $36.60 here is this site's own calculation. It takes the average estimate, adds Micron's median beat of 15% over its last four reports, and adjusts for recent estimate changes.

Options prices suggest an implied moveThe implied move is how far the options market expects a stock to move on an event, up or down, worked out from options prices. A 12% implied move on a $50 stock means traders are paying for a swing to roughly $44 or $56. It is what is already priced in, so the stock has to beat it for an options bet to pay. of about 7.6% either way by Friday. That figure comes from the last trades in the October 2 $1,065 call and put at Tuesday's close. Together they cost $80.78, which is 7.6% of the $1,065.08 closing price. Those are last trades, not bid and ask quotes, so treat it as approximate.

The Micron Earnings Tracker, Quarter by Quarter

Each row is one report, oldest first. Micron's fiscal year ends around the start of September, so "FQ4 FY2025" means its fiscal fourth quarter, June to August 2025. The results table compares each quarter with what Micron and analysts expected. The reaction table has what Micron forecast next, how memory prices moved, and what the stock did. Tonight's row fills in when the results land.

Results Against Expectations

Quarter (report date)	Revenue forecast	Revenue actual	vs forecast	EPS forecast	EPS estimate	Whisper	EPS actual	vs estimate
FQ4 FY2025 (Sep 23, 2025)	$11.2B	$11.32B	+1.0%	$2.85	$2.86	n/a	$3.03	+5.9%
FQ1 FY2026 (Dec 17, 2025)	$12.5B	$13.64B	+9.1%	$3.75	$3.96	n/a	$4.78	+20.6%
FQ2 FY2026 (Mar 18, 2026)	$18.7B	$23.86B	+27.6%	$8.42	$9.16	n/a	$12.20	+33.2%
FQ3 FY2026 (Jun 24, 2026)	$33.5B	$41.46B	+23.7%	$19.15	$20.69	$22.15	$25.11	+21.4%
FQ4 FY2026 (Sep 30, 2026)	$50.0B	$54.23B	+8.5%	$31.00	$31.82	$36.60	$33.42	+5.0%
FQ1 FY2027 (December)	$61.5B	pending		$38.15			pending

Memory Prices, Next-Quarter Forecast and Stock Reaction

Quarter (report date)	DRAM price change	NAND price change	Next-quarter revenue forecast	Analysts expected	Forecast vs analysts	Close before report	+1 hour	+1 day	+1 week
FQ4 FY2025 (Sep 23, 2025)	Low double digits	High single digits	$12.5B	$11.94B	+4.7%	$166.41	+1.7%	-2.8%	+0.5%
FQ1 FY2026 (Dec 17, 2025)	About +20%	Mid-teens	$18.7B	$14.20B	+31.7%	$225.52	+6.1%	+10.2%	+27.1%
FQ2 FY2026 (Mar 18, 2026)	Mid-60s %	High-70s %	$33.5B	$24.3B	+37.9%	$461.73	-1.8%	-3.8%	-17.3%
FQ3 FY2026 (Jun 24, 2026)	Low-60s %	Mid-80s %	$50.0B	$43.58B	+14.7%	$1,048.51	+14.5%	+15.7%	-1.6%
FQ4 FY2026 (Sep 30, 2026)	Pending (industry forecast +13% to 18%)	Pending (industry forecast +10% to 15%)	$61.5B	$57.02B	+7.9%	$1,065.11	pending	pending	pending

How Each Column Is Measured

These definitions stay fixed from quarter to quarter, so the rows compare like for like.

• Revenue and EPS forecast: the midpoint of the range in Micron's previous results release. EPS is adjusted (non-GAAP), the figure Micron guides to. For FQ4 FY2025 it is the August 11, 2025 update, which raised the forecast from $10.7 billion to $11.2 billion mid-quarter.
• Actuals: Micron's own releases, filed with the SEC for September 2025, December 2025, March 2026 and June 2026.
• EPS estimate: the Yahoo Finance average for each quarter, one source for every row. LSEG's figures, as quoted by CNBC, are within 2% for the three quarters where I have both.
• Whisper: the figure for the third quarter of fiscal 2026 is the number published by the Earnings Whispers website, as reported by Shacknews. I could not source a published whisper for the three earlier quarters, so those cells stay empty.
• DRAM and NAND price change: how Micron described the change in its average selling price from the previous quarter. For most quarters that comes from its quarterly SEC filing, the 10-Q. For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 it comes from the statement read at the start of the earnings call. Micron reports these as ranges, such as "mid-60%". Tonight's row uses TrendForce's forecast for July to September industry contract prices until Micron reports its own.
• Analysts expected: LSEG's average for the next quarter's revenue at the time of each report, as quoted by CNBC. Forecast vs analysts is Micron's midpoint divided by that figure.
• Stock reaction: the 1-hour, 1-day and 1-week moves are all measured from the 4:00pm ET close just before the results came out. +1 hour is the after-hours price at 5:00pm ET, from Yahoo Finance's hourly data. After-hours trading is thin, so this one moves around more. +1 day is the next session's close. +1 week is the close five sessions after the report.

The guidance and estimate figures are also in this site's earnings expectations database, with CSV and JSON downloads under a CC BY 4.0 licence. Cite this page for the stock-reaction columns, which the database does not carry.

What Four Micron Reports Show

Micron's own forecasts have been too low every time. Revenue beat the midpoint by 1% in September 2025 and 9% in December, then by 28% and 24% in the two quarters after. In those two quarters Micron's DRAM prices rose by around 60% in three months. The forecast is set at the start of the quarter. When prices rise faster than Micron expected, the result lands well above it.

The forecasts for the next quarter beat analysts every time too. The gap was 4.7% in September 2025 and 14.7% in June. In between it was over 30% twice. Analysts have been working from older price assumptions than Micron. After each forecast, their estimates for that quarter moved up to meet it.

The stock's reaction has had little to do with the size of either beat. March had the largest forecast gap of the four, at 37.9%. The stock fell 3.8% the next day and 17.3% over the week. September 2025 had the smallest gap and fell 2.8%. December and June both rose by double digits. Four reports is too few to find a rule, and I don't see one in these.

The stock's next-day moves have been large in both directions. They averaged 8.1% either way across the four reports, a little above the 7.6% that options price in for tonight. Two of the four moves were larger than 7.6%.

What Decides Micron Stock After Tonight's Report

The forecast for the quarter ending December 3. Analysts expect $57.9 billion, per Yahoo Finance. Their estimates range from $53.3 billion to $75.4 billion. That is a wide spread for a company that gives a forecast every quarter.

The quarter that just ended had 14 weeks and the next one has 13, so it has one fewer week of sales. At the same weekly pace, $51.1 billion over 14 weeks becomes about $47.4 billion over 13. So $57.9 billion needs revenue per week to grow about 22%.

Memory prices would have to rise about 22% to get there on their own, and the forecasts for next quarter are lower. TrendForce expects conventional DRAM contract prices to rise 10% to 15% from October to December, per SMM's summary of its September 24 forecast. It has NAND up 15% to 20%, per its report page. Micron is also selling slightly more chips each quarter, but its bit shipments grew only in the low to mid single digits last quarter.

Putting those together, my estimate for the quarter ending December 3 is $54 billion to $57 billion of revenue. Even the top of that range falls short of $57.9 billion. Micron sees its own contract prices, and its forecasts beat analysts by 5% to 38% four times running. Suppose Micron forecasts $58 billion or more, with a gross margin of 86% or higher. That would mean the price slowdown has not reached Micron, and I would be wrong.

The gross margin forecast is the second number to read. Micron forecast about 86% for this quarter, up from 84.9% last quarter. Earlier in the year it was rising 10 to 18 percentage points a quarter. A forecast at or below 86% would tell me margins have stopped rising.

On September 16, this site recorded a decision not to sell Micron options before this report. Selling options pays when the stock moves less than options prices expect. The stock was then at $929, with a 10.9% move priced, and it closed at $1,065.08 on Tuesday. That decision is graded after the report in the Track Record.

How This Tracker Gets Updated

Tonight's row fills in when Micron releases its results, in the same page and at the same address. The +1 hour column fills in first, the +1 day column on Thursday's close, and the +1 week column on Wednesday, October 7. Each later quarter adds a row. The next is Micron's report for the quarter ending December 3, which should come in the third week of December.

The results figures will also appear at the top of this page and in the earnings calendar once released. This week's schedule for the rest of the market is in the week-ahead hub.

The One-Line Read

Micron has beaten its own forecasts and analysts' forecasts in every report for a year. Tonight the number to watch is the forecast for next quarter against $57.9 billion, and I think it is more likely to come in below.