Stock Market Week Ahead (Oct 26-30): The Fed Decides Wednesday, Microsoft and Alphabet Report Hours Later, Then GDP and PCE

TL;DR

• The Fed announces its interest rate decision at 2:00pm ET on Wednesday, October 28. It is expected to hold at 3.75% to 4.00%, and futures put the chance of a rise below 10%. Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at 2:30pm. The Fed publishes no dot plot at this meeting, the chart of where officials themselves expect rates to go.
• Last week ended with oil above $100 a barrel and the Dow down 652 points on Friday. The S&P 500 closed at 7,623.68 and the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.00%.
• Monday, October 26 is quiet. Verizon reports before the open, with no major US release. Coca-Cola, Boeing and Visa follow on Tuesday.
• Wednesday, October 28, after the close: Microsoft and Alphabet both report, about two hours after the Fed decision.
• Thursday, October 29, 8:30am ET: third-quarter GDP and September PCEPCE (the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index) is the inflation measure the Fed officially targets at 2%. It covers a wider range of spending than CPI and weights items differently, which is why the two can disagree and why Fed officials quote PCE when the headlines quote CPI. inflation arrive together. Amazon and Intel report after the close, Chevron on Friday.

The Board

The Fed on Wednesday, Microsoft and Alphabet hours later, GDP and PCE on Thursday.

What Time Is the Fed Decision This Week?

2:00pm ET on Wednesday, October 28. Warsh's press conference starts at 2:30pm. The meeting runs October 27-28, per the Federal Reserve's own calendar. It carries no Summary of Economic Projections, so no new rate forecasts from individual officials are published. The next set comes in December. The Fed hub tracks the odds and the vote.

Last Week: Oil Above $100 Took the Dow Down 652 Points on Friday

Friday's regular session closed lower across all three main indexes. The Dow fell 652.82 points, or 1.23%, to 52,215.16. The S&P 500 fell 0.52% to 7,623.68 and the Nasdaq Composite 0.21% to 25,955.34, per Yahoo Finance and CNBC.

West Texas Intermediate crude went above $100 a barrel on concern about renewed conflict between the United States and Iran. Energy shares rose and almost three in four S&P 500 stocks fell. Gold fell as well, because dearer oil raises expected inflation, which raises expected interest rates, per CNBC. The background is in the piece on the supply deficit and Hormuz.

The 10-year Treasury yield ended the week at 5.00%, per ETF Trends. It dipped under 5% midweek as investors sold AI shares and bought bonds. The sector heatmap shows which groups are carrying the index, and the last edition has the September inflation figures.

Why the Fed Is Expected to Hold on Wednesday and Raise Rates in December

The committee raised rates to 3.75-4.00% in September on a 12-0 vote. Its median forecast showed one more quarter-point rise before the end of 2026, without naming the meeting. Markets have settled on the later one.

Hike oddsHike odds come from fed funds futures, contracts that pay out based on where the Fed's rate ends up. Their prices imply a probability, so 'a 57% chance' is what traders are betting, not a poll or a forecast. come from interest rate futures, contracts whose payout depends on where the Fed sets rates. The figure is money at risk rather than the result of a forecasters' survey. Priced on October 22 and 23, they put the chance of a rise on Wednesday at about 7% to 9%. For December 9 they run about 70% to 80%. Reuters found the major brokerages expect December too, in its October 23 round-up. October's odds were nearer 20% three weeks ago, before the weak September jobs report.

So the wording of Wednesday's statement matters more than the rate. Two things get read closely: whether a rise is still coming this year, and whether expensive oil changes how many the Fed expects in 2027.

Monday, October 26: Verizon Before the Open, and No Major US Data

• Before the open: Verizon. Analysts expect $1.27 a share on about $34.9 billion of revenue, per the earnings calendar. Its implied moveThe implied move is how far the options market expects a stock to move on an event, up or down, worked out from options prices. A 12% implied move on a $50 stock means traders are paying for a swing to roughly $44 or $56. It is what is already priced in, so the stock has to beat it for an options bet to pay., the swing options prices suggest after results, is 5.5%. Every implied move on this page was calculated from share prices recorded on October 18, before last week's selling.
• After the close: The Hartford Insurance Group.
• No major US economic release. The Fed is in its quiet period, so no official speaks about rates.

Tuesday, October 27: Durable Goods at 8:30, Coca-Cola and Boeing Before the Open, Visa After the Close

• 8:30am ET: September durable goods orders. Forecasts are for a rise of roughly 0.4% to 0.6% on the month.
• 10:00am ET: consumer confidence for October, from the Conference Board. Sources disagree on the September level, so none is given here.
• Before the open: Coca-Cola, Boeing, Royal Caribbean and Centene. Analysts expect a loss of $0.20 a share from Boeing. Coca-Cola has the week's narrowest implied move at 4.1%, Centene one of the widest at 10.5%.
• The FOMC meeting begins in the afternoon. Nothing is announced on the first day.
• After the close: Visa, Robinhood, WM and EQT. Visa's implied move is 4.2%, Robinhood's 12.0%.

Wednesday, October 28: The Fed at 2:00pm, Then Microsoft and Alphabet After the Close

• 2:00pm ET: the Fed's decision, with the press conference at 2:30pm.
• 19.4 million Cerebras Systems shares become free to sell, a lock-up trancheA tranche is one scheduled slice of a lock-up release. Rather than freeing every insider share at once, an IPO prospectus can release them in steps on fixed day counts, so each tranche is a date when a set number of shares becomes sellable. set out in the prospectus. That is 56% of the 34.5 million shares sold in the May IPO, and 8.6% of the roughly 226.5 million outstanding. The rest are freed on November 9.
• After the close: Alphabet and Microsoft. Analysts expect $3.00 a share from Alphabet on about $127.7 billion of revenue, and $4.72 from Microsoft on about $90.7 billion. Alphabet's implied move is 7.0%, Microsoft's 6.0%. Microsoft set its date in its own announcement of October 7. Its call is at 5:30pm ET, Alphabet's at 4:30pm.
• Also after the close: T-Mobile US, ServiceNow and O'Reilly Automotive.

Investors will focus on what Microsoft and Alphabet report about their cloud businesses, and on how much each is spending on AI. Microsoft's Azure growth rate and Alphabet's capital spending plan have moved these shares most in recent quarters. Both report into a fortnight of selling in AI shares. The Microsoft decision piece and the Alphabet piece on the DeepMind reshuffle carry the longer argument.

Thursday, October 29: GDP and PCE at 8:30am, Then Amazon and Intel

• 8:30am ET: the first estimate of third-quarter GDP, and September PCE inflation. Both come from the Bureau of Economic Analysis at the same minute, per its schedule. Second-quarter growth was 2.2% at an annual rate.
• PCE is the inflation measure the Fed targets at 2%, and the September figure weighs heavily on whether the Fed raises rates in December. Core PCE, which leaves out food and energy, ran 3.0% over the year to August. The Cleveland Fed's October 22 nowcast puts September near 3.05%, on its nowcasting page. A reading there leaves December where markets have it; a hotter one makes the rise close to certain.
• 8:30am ET: weekly jobless claims.
• Before the open: Mastercard, Merck and Bristol-Myers Squibb.
• After the close: Amazon, Intel, Starbucks and Mondelez. Amazon's call is at 5:00pm ET, per its announcement of October 15. Intel's implied move is 12.1%, among the widest this week.
• The Fed's quiet period ends, so officials can discuss rates again.

Friday, October 30: Chevron and AbbVie, and the Month Ends

• 8:30am ET: the employment cost index for the third quarter, a measure of wages and benefits the Fed reads for whether pay growth is adding to inflation.
• Before the open: Chevron and AbbVie. Analysts expect $4.89 a share from Chevron. It is the first large oil producer to report since crude passed $100, but its quarter ended September 30, before that move.
• It is the last trading day of October, so funds that rebalance monthly will be buying and selling in the closing minutes. Each morning's running order is on /today.

The One-Line Read

The Fed is expected to leave rates at 3.75-4.00% on Wednesday, so the statement's wording on a December rise matters more than the decision. Microsoft and Alphabet report hours later, and Thursday's PCE inflation figure affects the December decision.