Stock Market Week Ahead (Sep 7-11): Labor Day, Apple's iPhone Event, Oracle, Adobe, and August CPI

TL;DR

• US stock and bond markets are closed Monday, September 7 for Labor Day. Four sessions this week, and the two big ones are at the end of it.
• August CPI publishes Friday, September 11 at 8:30am ET, per the BLS release schedule. It is the last inflation reading the Fed sees before it votes on the 16th. The Cleveland Fed's nowcast has headline inflation near 3.38%, a shade under July's 3.4%.
• Oracle and Adobe both report Thursday after the close, both calls starting at 5:00pm ET. Oracle carries a $638 billion backlog (future business waiting to be delivered). Adobe guided this quarter at ~$6.7bn revenue.
• Apple's "Surprise and Shine" event is Wednesday, September 9 at 1:00pm ET, the first launch run by John Ternus rather than Tim Cook. Apple stock typically rallies in anticipation, and drops slightly on the day ('sell the news').
• A September hike now priced near 60%, and the Fed is already in blackoutThe blackout is the quiet period before each Fed meeting when policymakers stop speaking publicly about rates and the economy. It exists so markets are not steered in the final days before a decision. for the September 15-16 meeting. No policymaker can comment on this week's data in public.

What to Expect From the Stock Market This Week

Four trading days, one big inflation print, and two large software companies reporting into the same hour. Plus Apple's iPhone event, where we expect the first folding iPhone to be unveiled.

The S&P 500 closed Friday's regular session at 7,718.60, down 0.38%. The Nasdaq Composite finished at 26,506.99 and the Dow at 53,414.25. Across the whole week the S&P moved about a tenth of a percent, roughly what all of August looked like. The sector heatmap is where the upcoming Friday morning's CPI reaction shows up first.

The rate path moved. August payrolls came in at +162,000 against estimates near 55,000, and traders lifted September hike oddsHike odds come from fed funds futures, contracts that pay out based on where the Fed's rate ends up. Their prices imply a probability, so 'a 57% chance' is what traders are betting, not a poll or a forecast. to roughly 60% into the close. The revisions influenced this repricing as much as the headline number. July's initial minus 23,000 became plus 21,000. Three weeks of "the labour market is cracking" was based on a figure the BLS has now revised.

The Board

Four sessions, and two of them carry the whole week.

Is the Stock Market Open on Labor Day 2026?

No. The NYSE and Nasdaq are closed all day Monday, September 7, and the bond market is closed with them. Trading resumes at 9:30am ET on Tuesday. Every 2026 closure sits on the market hours page.

It is the last full-day closure until Thanksgiving, and the traditional line where summer volumes end. Whether volume actually comes back is worth watching Tuesday.

Tuesday, September 8: A Thin Reopen

Nothing significant happening on the US statistical calendar. The earnings are small-cap and consumer. GameStop and Casey's General Stores report after the close, with ServiceTitan alongside them. United Natural Foods and Korn Ferry report earlier; the times are on the earnings calendar.

Wednesday, September 9: Apple, Chewy, and a SpaceX Tranche

Apple's event starts at 1:00pm ET (10:00am Pacific) at Apple Park. It is called "Surprise and Shine". MacRumors expects the iPhone 18 Pro, the iPhone 18 Pro Max and a foldable iPhone, plus an Apple Watch refresh.

It is John Ternus's first launch as CEO, after he took over from Tim Cook on September 1. A foldable would also be the first genuinely new iPhone shape in years. The hardware has been leaking for months, so the stock rarely rises for the demo. I would watch the pricing.

Chewy and Signet Jewelers report earnings before the open, AeroVironment after the close.

Lastly, SpaceX's day-90 lock-upAfter a company lists, insiders and early investors are barred from selling their shares for a set period, the lock-up. When it ends those shares can be sold for the first time, so a large release can pressure the stock. tranche falls on Wednesday, roughly 319 million shares, about 7% of the restricted pool. Every tranche sits on the IPO lock-up calendar, and the August 6 release caused the stock to go up rather than down.

Thursday, September 10: PPI, the ECB, Oracle and Adobe

The densest day of the week.

August PPI publishes at 8:30am ET. July's index was unchanged on the month and up 4.7% over twelve months, per the BLS. Producer prices arrive a day before CPI this month, the reverse of the usual order. Weekly jobless claimsWeekly jobless claims count how many people filed for unemployment benefits, published every Thursday. They are the fastest official read on layoffs: monthly reports describe last month, claims describe last week. also land at the exact same time.

The ECB decides on rates at 8:15am ET. All 65 economists surveyed in a Reuters poll expect a quarter-point rise, taking the deposit rate to 2.50%. Euro-area inflation was at 3.3% in August, largely because of higher energy prices. Lagarde speaks at 8:45am. Because the rate rise is widely expected, markets will care more about future guidance.

Oracle reports fiscal Q1 after the close, call at 5:00pm ET, per Oracle's own advisory. The headline revenue number matters less than what Oracle says about its huge backlog. In June, Oracle reported record revenue of $19.2 billion and remaining performance obligations of $638 billion, up 363% year over year. The problem is that Oracle has not said how long it will take to recognise that backlog as revenue, or how much of the growth comes from customers other than OpenAI. Those two figures would make the $638bn number much easier to judge. Our explainer on RPO explains why a backlog figure is far less useful without a timeframe. On Thursday, I want Oracle to provide either of those details. If it only reports another bigger backlog number, I'd be cautious about treating that as a strong result.

Adobe reports the same hour, call also at 5:00pm ET. Its own guide is $6.67bn to $6.72bn of revenue and non-GAAP EPS of $6.05 to $6.10, filed with the Q2 results. Q2 revenue was a record $6.62bn. The question investors will be looking for in the print is whether Firefly earns money fast enough to offset AI-native tools pulling creative work away from Creative Cloud. RH and Copart also report.

Friday, September 11: 8:30am August CPI

The August Consumer Price Index publishes at 8:30am ET. July printed +0.1% on the month and 3.4% on the year, with core at +0.2% and 2.5%, every figure on consensus. The Cleveland Fed's inflation nowcast puts August headline near 3.38%, which would be flat in practice.

There is no clear Wall Street forecast for the monthly CPI number yet. The key levels are the same as in our CPI preview. Inflation at 3.4% or lower would strengthen the case for keeping rates unchanged. A rise towards 3.6% would strengthen the case for a September hike, especially after three Fed officials already voted for one at the last meeting.

The September hub tracks the odds into the vote. Kroger reports before the open, and the University of Michigan's preliminary sentiment survey lands at 10:00am.

The One-Line Read

A holiday, then two boring sessions, then Thursday and Friday all at once. By 9am on Friday the Fed knows everything it will know when it votes on the 16th.