Newmont Earnings July 23: Record Gold Profits, and the Estimates Nobody Trusts

TL;DR

• Newmont reports Q2 2026 results after Thursday's close, July 23, with the Street looking for roughly $6.28 billion in revenue and $1.99 in EPS, up about 39% on last year's $1.43.
• Those are big year-over-year gains, and almost nobody trusts them: the consensus EPS estimate has been cut about 12% in 30 days (from $2.26) as gold pulled back from its record.
• The tension is the trade: trailing profits are the best in the company's history, but the forward numbers are falling, and the stock trades on the forward numbers.
• Buy, sell, or watch below, plus the options setup for a name that suddenly moves.

The Board

The bar is high and the estimates are sliding toward it. That gap is the whole print.

The Beat Is Already In The Rearview

Gold spent the last year doing the heavy lifting. Newmont sells a commodity it does not price, so when gold ran to records, every ounce out of the ground converted to margin the company never had to earn. That is why Q2 revenue is set to grow 18% and EPS 39% off a business that did not dig up 39% more gold. The metal did the work.

The problem with a commodity beat is that it is backward-looking. The quarter being reported captured high realized prices. What the market wants is the next quarter, and gold has already rolled over from its record. A great Q2 into a falling metal is the classic "good number, wrong direction" setup.

Why The Estimate Cuts Matter More Than The Print

Analysts do not usually slash a number 12% in a month heading into what should be a record quarter. They did here, and that tells you the sell side is marking to a lower gold price and higher-for-longer mining costs (labor, diesel, and grade all bite).

Two ways that resolves:

• The cuts went too far. If Newmont confirms cost discipline and the realized price held up, the lowered bar becomes easy to clear and the stock gaps on relief. Our earnings-beat paradox piece covers why a beaten-down estimate is worth more than a good result.
• The cuts were early. If all-in sustaining costs creep and management guides the back half to the softer gold forecast, the "record profit" headline gets ignored and the guide sets the tape.

The Options Angle

• Options on NEM price a real move, and the direction is genuinely two-sided. Selling the expected move with an iron condor works when the beat and the guide-down cancel out, which is exactly the shape a record-quarter-into-falling-gold print tends to take.
• If you want direction, own the metal's next leg, not the overnight. Newmont is a leveraged bet on where gold goes, not on this one quarter. Buying calls after the print lets the guide, not the headline, decide.
• Miners gap on cost lines, not revenue. Watch all-in sustaining cost per ounce. Revenue is gold's story; costs are Newmont's, and the cost line is what re-rates the stock.

The One-Line Read

Newmont is about to print the best trailing numbers in its history into a market already trading the next, lower ones, so treat the record as priced and let the cost guide, not the EPS beat, tell you whether the estimate cuts were panic or foresight.